Villa continue to break xG models while Sunderland have their moment to remember

Sunderland's moment to remember

The roads around the Stadium of Light have banners attached to each post celebrating moments that matter for Sunderland, the most recent of which is currently Eliezer Mayenda's opening goal in the win over West Ham on the first weekend of this season.

Perhaps a picture of Nick Woltemade outside this ground would be too much but this was certainly a moment that mattered to the Sunderland supporters. A win to remember as they defeated rivals Newcastle 1-0 in a long-awaited derby meeting.

This club has been to League One and back since the previous Premier League game between these sides in 2016 and seen their great rivals supercharged by new ownership in the meantime. But Sunderland are more than just back, they are back in some style.

In a game of few chances, they played with purpose, a bit of a swagger at times courtesy of Granit Xhaka, Enzo Le Fee and Chemsdine Talbi. They outplayed their opponents but outfought them too. Regis Le Bris is masterminding one of the stories of the season.

Newcastle just had no way through against a team that have made themselves difficult to beat but easy to watch. And even though Sunderland are up to seventh in the Premier League table, there is reason to believe there is much more to come from this side.

Le Bris talks of trying to press high but also being able to defend deeper. "We are now able to manage different shapes." They are adding elements. Momentum is with them. Bottle the feeling of this derby victory and there will be many more moments that matter.
Adam Bate

Haaland and Man City look ominous

Manchester City were not perfect against Crystal Palace. Far from it. They rode their luck at times, with the hosts twice hitting the woodwork. The final scoreline flattered them.

But to win by three goals at one of the most difficult grounds in the country, only days after what Pep Guardiola described as an "emotionally draining" win over Real Madrid in the Bernabeu was impressive going. "A good sign," said their manager.

Not for the first time, it was Erling Haaland who broke the game open, heading home his first effort on goal of the afternoon from Matheus Nunes's cross. Sometimes, one chance is all he needs. It was a crucial goal which changed the momentum of the game.

Manchester City had hardly threatened before that but Haaland seized his moment and kept his cool for his second too.

"Where were you at Wembley?" asked the home fans in reference to the FA Cup final, when he saw a spot kick saved by Dean Henderson. This time he made no mistake, enjoying the celebrations in front of the Holmesdale End.

His scoring rate is such that it has become routine to see him find the back of the net. He is now up to 17 for the season in the Premier League. Guardiola is having to iron out flaws on the fly but Haaland's form continues to be ominous for their title rivals.
Nick Wright

Aston Villa are breaking xG models

The numbers say no. The results keep screaming yes.

Aston Villa's 3-2 win at West Ham was another chapter in a season that continues to laugh in the face of expected goals models. You can almost hear the algorithms whirring uncomfortably as Unai Emery's side march on. It's now nine wins in a row across all competitions.

Villa have now scored 25 Premier League goals from an expected goals total of just 17.06 and lost the "xG battle" at the London Stadium 1.04 - 0.62.

Morgan Rogers' stunning strike to win the game means Villa have scored 10 goals from outside the box this season. That's three more than any other Premier League side.

The expected goal models hate long shots. And usually, they're right to. Most fly into Row Z or end up as corner flags souvenirs. But Villa are not shooting with hope, they are shooting with quality.

The uncomfortable truth for Villa's rivals is that this is a team consistently outperforming xG through shot selection, confidence and execution.

Many are expecting a regression but the league table suggests otherwise.
Lewis Jones

Palace chance-conversion problems could persist if January remedy not found

Manchester City's victory at Crystal Palace was not a 3-0 game, but history never favours the side that had the majority of the chances without converting.

It all comes down to the scorline and Palace will be kicking themselves after this one.

Oliver Glasner's side were taught a lesson in clinical finishing. Man City managed seven shots to Crystal Palace's 16, but six of City's efforts were on target, while four of Palace's tested Gianluigi Donnarumma.

The goals have dried up for Jean-Philippe Mateta, who hasn't scored from open play in his last six outings.

Palace's problem is when he's not scoring in the Premier League, few others are offering up the goals.

Ismaila Sarr, who has been keen to help Mateta with the numbers, will depart for AFCON, making Palace's need to dip into the market in January all the more important.

The numbers don't lie - West Ham's defence is holding them back

You can change the manager. You can tweak the shape. But the same problems are holding West Ham back from pulling away from the relegation zone.

Since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge, they have conceded 1.73 goals per game and their expected goals against paints an even grimmer picture, where they are shipping 1.85 xGA per game. Nuno's teams are usually defined by defensive organisation where there is a sense of collective responsibility but the same problems keep appearing.

West Ham are a defence full of players that can't defend their box with any authority and allows opponents too many good chances, too often. The 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa summed it up perfectly. Moments of control, followed by lapses of concentration at key moments.

A team with West Ham's defensive numbers puts you in relegation trouble. Historically, teams with those metrics don't survive unless they possess elite finishing or counter-attacking firepower. West Ham do have Jarrod Bowen but he needs some support in the other box. A dominant, ball-winning centre-back is a must in January.
Lewis Jones