What do RM need vs. Benfica on Matchday 8 to reach the UCL round of 16?

Heading into Matchday 8 of the league phase of the 2025-26 Champions League, only two teams are assured of a place in the round of 16. Real Madrid are not one of them, but Álvaro Arbeloa’s side are within touching distance of the first knockout round proper.

Madrid sit third in the standings, behind Arsenal and Bayern Munich, ahead of Wednesday’s game away to José Mourinho’s Benfica.

Madrid’s margin for error

Madrid’s 15 points from seven games, five wins and two defeats, mean they are guaranteed to be a seeded team in the knockout phase playoffs even if things go badly wrong in the final round of fixtures.

Their current position also means they know exactly what is required in Lisbon. A victory will ensure direct qualification for the round of 16, no questions asked.

A draw would also almost certainly be enough. That result would move Los Blancos onto 16 points, a tally that two teams, Liverpool and Tottenham, could surpass and seven could match with a victory on Matchday 8.

Why a draw should still do the job

Goal difference is the first tiebreaker, and Madrid are in a strong position there. Their current margin is significantly better than eight of the 10 teams that can still reach at least 16 points.

Six teams would need to finish ahead of the Spanish giants for them to miss out, so a draw in Portugal should see Madrid qualify unless a freak set of results, including several heavy wins elsewhere, unfolds across Europe.

The nightmare scenario: defeat in Lisbon

A loss to Benfica, however, would complicate matters considerably. That would leave Madrid stuck on 15 points, a total that nine teams could surpass with a victory on Matchday 8:

What knocks Madrid out of the top eight

If Madrid lose in Portugal, they will miss out on direct qualification for the round of 16 if the following happens: