Women's Super League predictions: Man City host Chelsea in huge title clash

  /  autty

Women's Super League leaders Manchester City host holders Chelsea in the headline fixture of MD14.

City's only defeat of the WSL season came against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on MD1, so can they get their revenge at the Etihad Stadium?

Meanwhile, Liverpool will be hoping to build on their first league win of the campaign last time out when they take on rivals Manchester United.

West Ham will be desperate to build a bigger gap between themselves and the relegation zone when they host Tottenham in a London derby, while Aston Villa face Everton at Goodison Park.

Brighton take on London City Lionesses in the final game of MD14, with Arsenal's fixture with Leicester City postponed due to their Women's Champions Cup commitments.

Here is how the Opta supercomputer predicts MD14 of the WSL will unfold, with all the fixtures taking place on Sunday.

WEST HAM V TOTTENHAM

West Ham have not fared well in WSL London derbies recently, losing each of their last five, while no team has lost more such games than the Hammers in the competition (34, ahead of Tottenham – 25).

And to make things worse for West Ham, Spurs' Bethany England has scored more WSL goals against the Hammers than any other player (10), while she is also the all-time top scorer in London derbies in the WSL (18).

However, Spurs will be low on confidence after their defeat to bottom-side Liverpool last time out.

Spurs have lost three of their last four away games in the WSL (D1), having avoided defeat in each of their previous five on the road in the top-flight (W2 D3). 

But Tottenham have lost only one of their last six league games against West Ham (W4 D1), though that defeat was in this exact fixture last season (2-0).

The Opta supercomputer predicts a close encounter at Chigwell Construction Stadium, giving Spurs a 39.7% chance of victory to West Ham's 34.4%, while the probability of a draw is 25.8%.

MANCHESTER UNITED V LIVERPOOL

Liverpool ended a run of 15 WSL games without a win last time out with a 2-0 victory over Spurs (D5 L10), though the Reds have not won back-to-back league matches without conceding since May 2024 (including a 1-0 victory over Man Utd).

And defeating United is no easy task, with the Red Devils unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions (W5 D2).

However, United have won just two of their last eight home games in the WSL (D4 L2). The Red Devils have failed to win four of their six matches on home soil this season (D3 L1), already as many as across the entirety of last term in the competition (P11 W7 D3 L1).

United have won three of their four home league matches against Liverpool (L1), scoring 12 goals and keeping three clean sheets across those three victories, and the supercomputer has backed them to get one over their rivals again.

The Red Devils have been handed a huge 75.7% chance of victory, while Liverpool's chances sit at 9.9%, with a 14.4% probability of clinching a draw at Progress with Unity Stadium.

EVERTON V ASTON VILLA

The Opta supercomputer expects a tight contest at Goodison Park, with Everton winning 39% of the pre-match simulations to Villa's 34.5%, while 26.5% of them ended as a draw.

Everton are unbeaten in each of their last three WSL meetings with Villa (W1 D2), the longest streak without defeat by either side in this match-up in the top-flight.

Everton will have to keep a close eye on Kirsty Hanson, who is enjoying her joint-best-ever season in the WSL, with seven goals, the same as she managed in her debut campaign with the Villans in 2022-23.

Despite Hanson's form, Villa have lost each of their last three away games in all competitions, last losing four consecutively on the road in April 2021, a run of seven defeats, with the sixth coming at Everton in the WSL (1-3).

And the Toffees have not had the best run at Goodison. Having played 10 WSL games at the ground, they have won just one (D2 L7), against Liverpool in November 2024. They have lost all five of their matches there this term.

BRIGHTON V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

Since the end of the November-December international break, London City Lionesses have won the fewest points (one – P4 D1 L3), scored the fewest goals (one) and are the only winless team in the WSL.

And the Opta supercomputer predicts that their turbulent run will continue, giving them just a 27.3% chance of victory against Brighton, who have been backed as favourites with a 46% probability of a win at home.

With the likelihood of a draw coming in at 26.7%, Brighton are likely to continue their five-game unbeaten run against newly-promoted sides in the WSL (W4 D1).

Three of Brighton's five league victories this season have been won 1-0, including the reverse fixture against the Lionesses.

It is already their joint-most 1-0 victories in a single top-flight campaign and, since their first in 2018-19, only Chelsea (21) and Tottenham (18) have won more matches by that scoreline than the Seagulls (16).

Only West Ham (30) and Everton (25) have conceded more goals in the WSL this season than the Lionesses (23), while away from home, they have faced the most shots on target (40) and have the second-worst expected goals against figure (13.3, West Ham 15.9).

MANCHESTER CITY V CHELSEA

Man City have won each of their last 12 league games since losing to Chelsea on MD1, the joint-third longest winning run in WSL history. However, they also lost to the Blues in the League Cup semi-final on January 21.

City will end the weekend 12 points ahead of Chelsea with a victory, which would be the furthest from the top the Blues have been in the WSL since the final day of the 2018-19 season (12 behind Arsenal in third).

Though the Opta supercomputer found little to split the top two sides in the WSL, with City winning 37.7% of the pre-match simulations to Chelsea's 36%, while 26.4% of them ended in a draw.

Chelsea have won seven of their last eight games against City in all competitions (L1), beating them twice already this season; the Blues could become the first team in WSL history to win four matches in a row against the Citizens.

Sonia Bompastor will be looking to earn her 50th win as Chelsea manager, in what will be her 63rd match as the Blues' boss in all competitions (D8 L5); the only manager to reach the milestone from fewer games in charge of a WSL club is Joseph Montemurro with Arsenal (61).

But City have Khadija Shaw in red-hot form. She has scored 13 goals this season, already more than the two WSL top scorers netted in the whole of last season (Shaw herself and Alessia Russo – 12).

The Jamaican has netted the winning goal in four of the Citizens' last six matches and has 22 winning goals to her name in the top-flight, a figure only team-mate Vivianne Miedema can better (28).

Related: Chelsea Manchester United Liverpool Everton Tottenham Hotspur Manchester City West Ham United
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