Women's Super League predictions: Man Utd host Chelsea as top six all face-off

  /  autty

The Women's Super League table is set to undergo some major changes as the top six sides all face one another.

Manchester United and Chelsea will kick off matchday five as the top two sides in the top-flight go head-to-head at Progress with Unity Stadium.

Manchester City will then look to extend their three-match winning run on Saturday as they face Arsenal, who sit fifth, having drawn their last two league games.

Fourth-place Tottenham host sixth-place Brighton as the early leaders look to cement their place in the top half of the table.

At the other end of the standings, West Ham and Liverpool will be looking to get their first points on the board when they face Aston Villa and London City Lionesses, respectively.

With Leicester City and Everton closing out the weekend, here is how the Opta supercomputer predicts MD5 will unfold.

MANCHESTER UNITED V CHELSEA

Reigning champions Chelsea kept their 100% start intact last time out with a 4-0 win at West Ham, and the Opta supercomputer predicts them to keep that run going against Man Utd on Friday.

Chelsea have been given a 56.3% chance of victory on the road, while United have won 21.8% of the simulations and clinched a draw in 21.9% of them.

The Blues have an impressive record against the Red Devils, inflicting at least twice as many defeats on United in the WSL as any other team (10), as well as scoring the most goals against them in the competition (29).

And United have lost 10 of their 11 WSL meetings with Chelsea, with the sole exception a 1-1 home draw under Casey Stoney in September 2020.

It has been an impressive start for Chelsea's Aggie Beever-Jones, who has found the net in all four WSL games so far this season. She is aiming to become only the second player to score in each of a team's opening five games of a WSL campaign, after Arsenal's Vivianne Miedema in 2020-21.

But United have their impact players as well. Five of Ella Toone's seven WSL goals so far in 2025 have been assisted by Elisabeth Terland, the most that one team-mate has assisted another this calendar year. In fact, no United team-mates have combined for more shots (11) than Toone and Terland since the start of last season.   

It will also be a landmark match for Chelsea boss Sonia Bompastor. This will be her 100th league game as manager, winning 90 of her first 99 and suffering only two defeats (vs Paris Saint-Germain in December 2022 and Bordeaux in May 2024 – D7).

MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL

The Opta supercomputer predicts a good weekend for both Manchester clubs, with Man City given a win probability of 49.2% compared to Arsenal's 25.3%, while a draw was expected in 25.6% of outcomes.

After losing on the opening day to Chelsea, Andree Jeglertz's side have won three WSL games on the bounce following a 4-1 victory against the Lionesses last weekend.

Jeglertz could become the seventh manager to win four of his first five WSL games, and the first since Arsenal's Renee Slegers in December 2024 (Spurs' Martin Ho could also achieve this on MD5).

But the Gunners know they will need to keep an eye on former striker Vivianne Miedema.

She has scored in both of her appearances against Arsenal in the WSL, with Caroline Weir the only player to net in three straight outings against the north London side in the competition, having previously played for them.

However, Arsenal are unbeaten in each of their last five WSL games against Man City (W4 D1), their longest-ever streak without loss against the Citizens; only Chelsea (11 straight) have ever endured a longer unbeaten streak against them in the top-flight.

Arsenal have drawn their last two league games (0-0 v Man Utd, 1-1 v Aston Villa), previously going three without victory in the same WSL season back in January-February 2023. The Gunners have never drawn three successive matches in the competition.

WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA

West Ham will be aiming to climb off the bottom of the WSL when they host Villa at Chigwell Construction Stadium in one of four games on Sunday.

The Hammers have lost each of their last six games in the WSL, their longest losing streak in the competition. West Ham have also made their worst-ever start to a top-flight campaign, losing each of their opening four games of a WSL season for the very first time.

No side have conceded more goals than West Ham in the WSL this season (14, level with the Lionesses). Indeed, it is the joint-most strikes that the Hammers have shipped after four games in a campaign, also conceding 14 across their first four in 2020-21.

Villa, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five away matches in the WSL (W3 D2) and could avoid defeat in six consecutive games on the road for just the second time in the competition, after doing so in January – May 2023 (run of seven).

They have also avoided defeat in all six of their away games against West Ham in all competitions as a top-flight side, winning each of the last three (D3) despite trailing in the last two.

The Opta supercomputer predicts a tight contest on Sunday, giving West Ham and Villa a 35.8% and 38.1% chance of a win, respectively, with a draw being the outcome in 26.1% of simulations.

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V LIVERPOOL

Liverpool are still looking to get their first points on the board, though they have played one fewer match than most teams, and the newly promoted Lionesses could provide the perfect chance to do so.

Gareth Taylor could lose four successive matches in the WSL for the very first time, though he has won eight of his nine games in the competition against newly promoted opposition – the exception was a 2-1 away loss to Liverpool with Man City in May 2023.  

The Lionesses have conceded the joint-most goals in the WSL so far this season, leaking 14 in total; only Yeovil Town (18) conceded more goals across their first four matches in the competition.

However, the Lionesses are unbeaten in each of their last three league meetings with Liverpool (W1 D2), with this the first since March 2022, a 1-1 draw at Princes Park.

The Opta supercomputer expects a close affair in this fixture too, with the Lionesses given a 38.6% chance of victory to Liverpool's 34.9%. A draw is a more likely outcome at 26.5%.

The Lionesses have Nikita Parris, though. She has scored nine WSL goals against Liverpool, with those strikes coming for three different clubs, with only three players finding the net against the same opponent with four different teams in the WSL.  

TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON

Tottenham could finish the weekend as high as first if results go their way and they manage to beat Brighton, which the Opta supercomputer thinks is the most likely outcome.

Spurs have been given a 50.5% chance of victory at home, while Brighton won 24.4% of the simulations. A draw is only slightly more likely at 25%.

Spurs have lost only one of their last seven league meetings with Brighton (W3 D3), though it was in this exact fixture last season (0-1); their biggest ever WSL win came against the Seagulls in October 2022, winning 8-0 away.

Tottenham have won three of their four matches in the WSL this season (L1), as many victories as across their previous 16 (D4 L9). In fact, Spurs have only ever won four of their opening five games of a WSL campaign on one previous occasion (W4 L1 in 2021-22).

Brighton have won both of their last two games in the WSL, though, and are looking to win three in a row in the competition for the first time since October-November 2021 – a run which included a 2-1 victory over Tottenham.

The Seagulls' Michelle Agyemang could also become the first teenager to score five times in the competition since Ebony Salmon for Bristol City in February 2020, while Spurs' Bethany England has the chance to be the first player in WSL history to score 50 home goals, netting 49 in 92 to date.

LEICESTER CITY V EVERTON

Leicester have lost three of their four WSL games this season (W1), their most defeats at this stage since losing their first four in 2022-23. The Foxes could lose three league games in a row for the first time in 2025.

Everton have started the season in similar form, having lost each of their last three WSL games, last losing four in a row in February 2024. Leicester (66.6%) and Liverpool (61.9%) are the only teams to spend a greater proportion of their total game time this season in a losing position than the Toffees (61.8%).

Leicester lost 1-0 in their first WSL home game against Everton, but are unbeaten in three since, winning 1-0 twice and drawing the other 0-0. This specific fixture averages fewer goals per game than any other in WSL history (three goals in four games – 0.75).

The Opta supercomputer expects another close contest this time around, too, with Leicester winning in 38.4% of simulations to Everton's 35.1%, again meaning a draw could be the most likely outcome at 26.5%.

No team have conceded more goals in the opening 30 minutes of WSL games so far this season than Leicester (five – level with West Ham), with the Foxes facing the most shots (24) and shots on target (15) in that period of any other side.

Going behind has proved to be detrimental to the hosts. No team have fallen 1-0 behind in more WSL matches since the start of last season than Leicester (17 – level with Tottenham), who have gone on to lose 15 of those matches (W1 D1).

Related: Arsenal Chelsea Manchester United Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur Manchester City Leicester City West Ham United Brighton & Hove Albion
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