World Cup winners don't always win the Ballon d'Or—Only a 57% success rate

The Ballon d'Or's official stance is that winning the FIFA World Cup enhances chances of winning the award, but it does not guarantee it.

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches its knockout stages, top players must deliver decisive performances to carry their teams to the final. Such displays naturally improve their chances of prominence in the subsequent Ballon d'Or voting. But is winning the FIFA World Cup necessary to win football's most prestigious individual award?

Examining the data reveals an interesting pattern. Bobby Charlton (1966), Paolo Rossi (1982), and Lothar Matthäus (1990) all won both the FIFA World Cup and Ballon d'Or in the same year. However, from 1995 onwards—when the Ballon d'Or expanded globally beyond European players—the picture becomes more nuanced and relevant to today.

Only a 57% success rate

In 1998, Zinedine Zidane left no doubt, winning the FIFA World Cup on home soil before claiming the Ballon d'Or shortly after. Four years later, Ronaldo repeated this feat with Brazil. In 2006, Italian defender Fabio Cannavaro maintained the streak, becoming the third consecutive World Cup winner to also win the Ballon d'Or that year. But the pattern ended there.

In 2010, Messi, who had an outstanding season with Barcelona, won the award ahead of Spain's Andrés Iniesta and Xavi, despite the latter two's World Cup victory. In 2014, Cristiano Ronaldo triumphed over FIFA World Cup runner-up Messi and World Cup-winning goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. In 2018, Luka Modric, who reached the final with Croatia, ranked higher than Ronaldo and France's Antoine Griezmann, despite Griezmann being the first player from France's 2018 World Cup-winning squad to appear in the Ballon d'Or rankings.

It wasn't until the 2022 FIFA World Cup that a World Cup champion again won the subsequent Ballon d'Or. Lionel Messi, after winning with Argentina, claimed the 2023 Ballon d'Or. To date, seven players have won both the FIFA World Cup and Ballon d'Or. Since 1995, only four of these seven achieved the double—a proportion of 57%. Winning the World Cup helps, but it doesn't guarantee the award. To win, you must be the best player throughout the entire season, not merely during the World Cup.

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