Bad news for Álvaro Arbeloa: The omen Real Madrid’s new coach must break

Real Madrid shocked the world of soccer twice on Monday, first by revealing they had parted ways with head coach Xabi Alonso and then by announcing Álvaro Arbeloa, who had been coaching their B team, as his replacement just minutes later.

That Alonso left his position by mutual agreement was clearly a sign that things were not going as hoped. Only four managers have a higher win percentage as Real Madrid coach than the former Liverpool midfielder, yet the mood around the Bernabéu is forever shaped by what is happening at bitter rivals Barcelona.

The task for Arbeloa in Madrid

Alonso hands over to Arbeloa with Madrid four points behind LaLiga leaders Barça, who dropped only eight points in the first half of the season. Los Blancos also missed out on the first domestic trophy of the year to the Catalans, who prevailed 3-2 in Sunday’s Spanish Super Cup final, played less than 24 hours before Alonso’s departure was confirmed.

If Arbeloa is to succeed in overhauling Barcelona at the top of the table, he will have to break a recent trend that underlines the growing importance of Spanish Super Cup success.

The Spanish Super Cup omen

In each of the last four seasons, the team that has won the four-team tournament has also lifted the LaLiga trophy, seemingly spurred on by getting the better of their Clásico foes in the Middle East.

In 2022, Madrid defeated Barça 3-2 after extra time in the semifinals before comfortably seeing off Athletic Club to win the Spanish Super Cup. In the league, Carlo Ancelotti’s team finished 13 points ahead of the Catalans, who were in ninth place when they replaced Ronald Koeman with Xavi in November.

The following season, Xavi’s Barcelona got Super Cup revenge by beating Real Madrid 3-1 in the final in Riyadh. They also pulled away from Los Blancos in LaLiga, claiming the title by 10 points.

Madrid reclaimed both trophies in 2024. A Vinicius Junior-hat trick was the highlight of their 4-1 Super Cup final victory against a hapless Barça, who fell out of the title race with a disastrous run of results almost immediately afterward. Ancelotti’s team won LaLiga with 10 points to spare.

History repeats itself... again

Twelve months later, the trophies changed hands once again. Hansi Flick’s Barcelona romped to a 5-2 Spanish Super Cup win over Madrid in Jeddah and edged a tighter race for the league title by four points.

Four points separate the teams with 19 games still to play, so this season’s championship race could still go either way. But recent history suggests Barcelona have given themselves a significant psychological edge, one Arbeloa will be tasked with overcoming in the second half of the season.