How many points do Real Madrid need in the UCL to qualify for the round of 16?

Madrid have only six points from their first five UCL games. How many more are they likely to need to avoid elimination?

Real Madrid, who face Atalanta in Italy on Tuesday (December 10), are teetering on the edge as they approach the final three matches of the Champions League group stage. After the first five games, Carlo Ancelotti’s team sits in 24th place with six points (two wins and three losses), the last spot that grants access to the knockout phase playoffs, which determine the final eight qualifiers for the Round of 16.

Champions League qualification projections

At the start of the season, UEFA conducted multiple simulations to predict the number of points needed to advance in the Champions League. The magic number: an average of 7.8 points to take part in the playoffs. In most seasons, eight points should be enough to stay alive in Europe’s top competition.

In some cases, ties at eight points will require a tiebreaker based on goal difference, while other seasons might demand nine or more points, and occasionally, teams might advance with just seven points.

Can Real Madrid still qualify directly for the round of 16?

For Real Madrid, finishing in the top eight and securing direct qualification to the Round of 16 is almost a pipe dream.

Based on the current standings, projections like those from BeSoccer place the top-eight cutoff at 16 points, which is already out of reach for Ancelotti’s team (who can only reach a maximum of 15 points). In fact, even Milan, with 16 points in one such simulation, would miss out on the top eight.

BeSoccer’s prediction also suggests that securing 24th spot will be tough. 10 points would be necessary, and even then, another team with 10 points might miss out. According to this projection, Madrid would finish the group stage in 18th place with 12 points.

How many points are needed to avoid Champions League elimination?

Before the competition began, and after running 10,000 simulations, X account Football Meets Data estimated there was a 55% chance that the 24th-placed team would finish with nine points, a 22% chance with 10 points, and a 1% chance that the threshold would rise to 11 points. This means that to avoid relying on goal difference, 10 points would be needed in 78% of cases, while nine points would guarantee a playoff place in only 22% of scenarios.

The same account now states that 12 points guarantee playoff qualification, 11 points are almost certain (99.8%), and 10 points make it highly probable (87%). With nine points, the chances drop to 46%, and with eight points, they fall to a mere 11%.

As for direct qualification for the round of 16, 15 points would only offer a 16% chance of advancing.

The double importance UCL league phase ranking

The standings in the Champions League group stage carry significant weight, both on the field and financially. Beyond the top eight teams advancing directly to the Round of 16, the group stage positions determine home-field advantage for the first two knockout rounds.

Teams finishing 9th to 16th will play the second leg of the playoff round at home, while the top eight will host the second leg of the Round of 16. These positions also influence potential matchups all the way to the final.

On the financial side, UEFA rewards teams with €275,000 (about $300,000) for each position they climb in the group stage. For example, the first-place team earns €9.9 million (approximately $10.8 million); the eighth-place team gets €6.875 million (around $7.5 million); the 16th-place team receives €4.675 million (about $5.1 million); the 24th-place team earns €3.575 million (circa $3.9 million); and the last-place team gets €275,000 (about $300,000).

Additionally, the top eight teams receive a €2 million (approximately $2.2 million) bonus for reaching the Round of 16, while teams finishing 9th to 24th get €1 million (around $1.1 million). The eight teams that advance from the playoff round earn another €1 million (circa $1.1 million) to match the earnings of the other Round of 16 teams.

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