L'Équipe: Ballon d'Or winner unprecedentedly difficult to predict, no clear favorite emerges

As the Ballon d'Or awards ceremony approaches, L'Équipe has published an article stating that the outcome of the 2026 Ballon d'Or may never have been so uncertain, open to so many candidates. From Mbappé to Yamal, from Messi to Kane or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, no one has completely stood out, but on Monday evening local time, one of them will be crowned in London.

Usually, rumors and predictions merge, and one view always emerges. But since Vincent García, editor-in-chief of France Football, became the only person to know the secret votes of 100 journalists worldwide, such a possibility no longer exists.

The world's top players will travel to London on Monday evening, not knowing who will stand up to receive the world's acclaim at the end of the 70th Ballon d'Or awards ceremony. The 2024-2025 season has indeed broken the established hierarchy in an extraordinary way.

Some players have won both the Champions League and the World Cup (Fabián Ruiz), but do not seem to be among the coronation candidates. Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d'Or winner who already has the award, may have had too mediocre a season at club level with Manchester City, making him unable to compete for the double. Yamal, the most media-appealing player in the Spanish World Cup winning team, performed relatively poorly in the World Cup due to injury (1 goal in 8 games). Although he had an extremely impressive start to the season, the evaluation only considers the last season, during which his statistics were not outstanding (25 goals and 20 assists in all competitions), certainly no better than Olise, another top right winger in world football (27 goals and 34 assists for Bayern Munich and the French national team).

Paris Saint-Germain once again dominated Europe, but if Dembélé's coronation in the scenario of the Théâtre du Châtelet was fully justified a year ago, it might not be enough in a World Cup year. Otherwise, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who missed the World Cup, would have become the second player after Rodri in 2024 to lift the Ballon d'Or on crutches, and his knee surgery might even force him to miss the ceremony that night. The Georgian was the most dazzling player in Paris' Champions League campaign, and among the 10 nominated Paris players, including Ferran Torres, the only goal scorer in the World Cup final, Dembélé seems to be his toughest competitor.

The hierarchy is blurred, even for former champions. Eight-time Ballon d'Or winner Messi will still receive votes from all over the world, even though he failed to become a world champion, even though he plays in the MLS, and even though his attitude during his time in the United States—by demanding cards or turning his back after losses—has slightly distanced him from the award's fair play guidelines.

He was going through a difficult personal period, losing his father shortly thereafter, but one cannot help but wonder whether this missed final and this reserved attitude would somewhat deter voters from his twilight magic. Finally, one must also consider the group of strikers who, despite not winning any major championships, continue to do the most difficult things on the football field. Incidentally, besides 73 goals in the 2025-2026 season, Kane is omnipotent. He is probably the most complete striker in the world, and one day, he deserves the honor that Lewandowski was deprived of when the 2020 Ballon d'Or was canceled.

Finally, there's Mbappé's turn. Compared to other parts of the world, he might cause more division in France, especially in Paris: he has never won the Champions League or La Liga with Real Madrid, and his team doesn't always flourish through his play, but he was the top scorer in La Liga last season (25 goals), the top scorer in the Champions League (15 goals), and the top scorer in the World Cup (10 goals).

In some years, statistics of this level helped Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo jointly monopolize the award list 13 times between 2008 and 2023. Therefore, like everyone else, Mbappé can dream until Monday evening local time. Like everyone else, he will spend the whole day amidst false rumors and predictions, until at the end of the evening hosted by Kate Scott and Thierry Henry, an envelope is opened, announcing the arrival of a lifelong dream.