Mbappe's 12 goals in 10 games vs Barcelona fail to impress as Ballon d'Or race heats up

According to Marca, matches against Barcelona have always been significant for Mbappe. During his time at PSG, he delivered several standout performances against them, further strengthening Real Madrid's interest in signing him. Since joining Real Madrid, he has scored 6 goals in 6 games against their arch-rivals but won only 1 of those matches, losing all 3 finals in which he has participated.

The Camp Nou encounters have become Kylian's obsession ahead of the Ballon d'Or vote, and those close to him still believe the award remains within reach. Although he can no longer receive votes, the direct confrontation with Yamal has attracted particular attention, while his name continues to gain traction in the odds.

Goals and Losses in El Clásico

During his time at PSG, his treble in 2021 cemented his leadership. He scored 3 goals in the 4-1 victory at Camp Nou, with Messi on the field and Neymar absent. He scored again in the 1-1 draw in the second leg, helping the team eliminate Barcelona in the Champions League Round of 16. In 2024, he again helped the team progress in Europe. After Paris lost 0-2, he scored twice in the 4-1 victory at Montjuïc, helping the Ligue 1 club reach the Champions League semifinals.

His first season at Real Madrid changed the significance of these matches. In his debut, he lost 0-4 at the Bernabéu and was caught offside eight times. He then scored in both the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey finals, but lost both. At La Cartuja, he came on as a second-half substitute and equalized with a free kick, helping Real Madrid Mount a comeback. The moment that best summed up the season came in May: he scored a hat-trick at Montjuïc, but Real Madrid lost 4-3. Despite scoring five goals, he lost his first four Clásicos.

The victory in October 2025 provided brief relief, but it did not lead to a sustained turnaround. Mbappe scored in the 2-1 victory at the Bernabéu, his only win over Barcelona as a Real Madrid player. He then came on as a substitute in another Spanish Super Cup final defeat in January 2026. He featured in the most recent Clásico, in which Flick’s team clinched the league title, but was sidelined by injury. Mbappe has scored 12 goals in 10 official matches against Barcelona, yet his record remains disappointing: 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. With Real Madrid sitting 6 points behind the leaders after two seasons without winning the league, Champions League, or Copa del Rey, this Sunday’s match is particularly crucial.

For Mbappe, this encounter comes at a favorable moment tactically. With Vinicius sidelined through suspension, Diomande has enjoyed a sustained run in the team, contributing more defensively and pressing more actively. Madrid media has sarcastically noted: "Now there's only one person resting." The French forward has become the focus of attention ahead of the match, and a victory could also boost his Ballon d'Or campaign. French journalists covering him in Madrid report that those close to him remain confident in his chances.

Those close to him are confident about the Ballon d'Or

The candidate's popularity in the prediction market has surged in recent hours. According to Polymarket records, Mbappe's implied probability of winning has risen to 25%, up approximately 19 percentage points from 24 hours earlier. The Frenchman is ahead of Yamal, who stands at 7.1%, but Harry Kane retains a commanding lead at 64%. This market shift adds further intrigue to the Real Madrid star's Ballon d'Or bid.

Mbappe has actively promoted his candidacy. "I feel this could be a good year for me, I feel good," he said in a series of interviews, hoping to secure support before the voting deadline. A month ago, RFI journalist Olivier Pron explained that "those around Kylian Mbappe believe this is the year to challenge for the Ballon d'Or," outlining how the interviews, including those with African journalists, were coordinated.

In an analysis titled "Kylian Mbappe has never believed in the Ballon d'Or so much," Damien Degorre of L'Équipe examined Mbappe's publicity campaign, top scorer awards, and efforts to build a compelling narrative. Among his teammates, Courtois publicly backed him, albeit with reservations: "I think personally, no one is better than Kylian, but unfortunately, we haven't won anything collectively." The Belgian also highlighted a key challenge facing the Frenchman, particularly in a World Cup year.

Some media outlets reported that Mbappe wanted Real Madrid to offer stronger support for his Ballon d'Or bid, but the Frenchman sarcastically dismissed claims that he was dissatisfied with the club. Mourinho and Raúl Asencio have also publicly praised his achievements. Real Madrid has confirmed it will attend Monday's awards ceremony after missing the event for two consecutive years, with Vinicius leading the absentees in 2024. The decision has raised Mbappe's hopes, or at least lifted his spirits. A victory in El Clásico would provide another boost as he heads to the awards ceremony in London.