Opta's supercomputer has been working overtime in the wake of the first wave of Champions League quarter final first legs, and it has come up with a new favourite to go all the way in Europe's premier competition.
Heading into the last-eight, Barcelona were considered the most likely team to lift the iconic trophy in Munich in May, ahead of PSG and Arsenal, with a 23.1 per cent chance of glory.
On Tuesday, though, there were two crucial results that have shaken up the predictions and seen one team in particular drop dramatically down the table.
Bayern Munich lost 2-1 at home to Inter Milan, finalists in 2023, leaving Harry Kane and Co plenty to do in northern Italy, while Arsenal stunned Real Madrid with a 3-0 win to solidify their own credentials.
As such, and perhaps unsurprisingly given the gravity of the tie, Arsenal have now shot up the table and are considered the most likely team to win the Champions League.
The supercomputer's calculations are made by using a combination of betting odds and Opta's power rankings, which are in turn derived from recent and historical team performances in the competition.
Opta's supercomputer rates their chances at 28.4 per cent - an increase of 12.8 per cent from pre-match predictions - and the Gunners have a 96 per cent chance of making the semi-finals and 54.2 per cent likelihood of reaching the final.
Declan Rice's two free-kicks and Mikel Merino's fine finish have handed them a three-goal advantage, but they still have to go to the Bernabeu and finish the job, which is no mean feat.
Second behind Arsenal are Barcelona, whose chances drop 0.7 per cent to 22.4 per cent, and are set to take on Borussia Dortmund in their quarter-final first leg on Wednesday night.
The Blaugrana are interestingly the third-most likely to reach the semis and the final, behind Arsenal and Inter, yet retain an advantage over the Italian giants in terms of their credentials to lift the trophy, it would seem.
As for Inter, their victory over Bayern boosted their chances of progression to 82.4 per cent - up from 51.5 per cent - and their overall title-winning chances are up 7.3 per cent.
Fourth come French champions PSG, dropping two places from pre-game predictions, but still very much contenders with a drop-off of only 0.5 per cent for their chances of glory.
The Parisian outfit are given a 72.4 per cent chance - up by 1.1 per cent - of beating Aston Villa in the semi-finals and facing either Arsenal or Real Madrid in the last-four, though the Gunners' dominant win has seemingly impacted PSG's odds of reaching the final, down 0.7 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
There is then a considerable drop-off between the top and bottom halves of the predictions table - which seems slightly unfair given two of them haven't even played yet.
Bayern are bizarrely up a place from sixth to the fifth despite losing, though their chances of winning the Champions League (3.7 per cent) have diminished by 7.1 per cent.
Their slender defeat by Inter means they do still have a 17.6 per cent chance of making the semis, and 8.6 per cent to reach the final.
Bayern are just ahead of Aston Villa, who take on PSG on Wednesday night, and are still given a fighting chance (27.6 per cent likelihood) of reaching the semis, though their overall title credentials are rated at just 3.2 per cent, down marginally from pre-Tuesday predictions.
Borussia Dortmund, who face Barcelona on Wednesday, are given only a 20 per cent chance of beating the Catalan giants, and 1.3 per cent of winning the competition, but the biggest losers from the first round - in many ways - are Real Madrid.
Previously given a 12.2 per cent chance of success and an oh-so-tight 49.8 per cent chance of beating Arsenal across two legs, Real Madrid are now bottom of the pile on 1.1 per cent to win the tournament.
They may be three down to Arsenal heading into the second leg, but an early goal at the Bernabeu, the fan suddenly in full voice, the pressure all on Arsenal all of a sudden, and you'd expect that 4 per cent chance of progression to shoot right up.
Lupacknryz
1
Yas fo barcelona
sodcltyz
0
another phone in the wrong hands dont talk with much feelings 1 day you will faint when arsenal win the champions league
It looks like you are a fake Madrid supporter or else you won’t type this rubbish. If you’re happy Arsenal beat you I don’t think they can ever beat my Barca in a UCL final
sodcltyz
0
invincible 2004, go and di your research.
You played the 2006 UCL finals with Barca and lost and that is what is important. In 2006 you were still describing yourself as Invincibles in the build up to the UCL finals
vahadkmop
0
If this computer thinks Arsenal can win UCL, then it is the most useless thing I have ever come across. Even in 2006 when they were labeled the “invincibles” they still failed to win UCL. The Barca that whipped them that year is still in the competition and will beat them again. They just beat Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates and are gloating. Barca beat them 4-0 at the Barnebeu; a feat Arsenal can never chalk.
another phone in the wrong hands dont talk with much feelings 1 day you will faint when arsenal win the champions league
vahadkmop
2
now bacelona has won 4-0 wat are the odds saying
sahaiknpu
2
this thing is just fake
vjIndia
0
As a liverpool fan my prefences to win- villa>inter>dortmund>psg>barca>bayern>arsenal>madrid
GunnArs
0
this supercomputer is like a 7years old child; wow barcelona playing superb, i like them, they are favorites. next day; wow arsenal play beautiful, now they are (my) favorites. next week; i love inter, now i’m inter fan, they are favorites. growing up can be confusing as is this (so called) supercomputer.
Vaecimprst
1
If this computer thinks Arsenal can win UCL, then it is the most useless thing I have ever come across. Even in 2006 when they were labeled the “invincibles” they still failed to win UCL. The Barca that whipped them that year is still in the competition and will beat them again. They just beat Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates and are gloating. Barca beat them 4-0 at the Barnebeu; a feat Arsenal can never chalk.
Another clown with a smart phone
Fokikmnsu
1
R.Madrid should forget the UCL this time.
brawn54
0
If this computer thinks Arsenal can win UCL, then it is the most useless thing I have ever come across. Even in 2006 when they were labeled the “invincibles” they still failed to win UCL. The Barca that whipped them that year is still in the competition and will beat them again. They just beat Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates and are gloating. Barca beat them 4-0 at the Barnebeu; a feat Arsenal can never chalk.
let him continue typing rubbish without research
elnilsen99
0
If this computer thinks Arsenal can win UCL, then it is the most useless thing I have ever come across. Even in 2006 when they were labeled the “invincibles” they still failed to win UCL. The Barca that whipped them that year is still in the competition and will beat them again. They just beat Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates and are gloating. Barca beat them 4-0 at the Barnebeu; a feat Arsenal can never chalk.
invincible 2004, go and di your research.
Ripailnpsz
0
Youseless computer operated by haterz fuck
sodcltyz
0
If this computer thinks Arsenal can win UCL, then it is the most useless thing I have ever come across. Even in 2006 when they were labeled the “invincibles” they still failed to win UCL. The Barca that whipped them that year is still in the competition and will beat them again. They just beat Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates and are gloating. Barca beat them 4-0 at the Barnebeu; a feat Arsenal can never chalk.
Luademoyz
1
the most stupid supercomputer I have ever heard of. always getting predictions wrong
Charlesugwu
2
Opta Computer is overthinking things. It shouldn't crashh yet
pudklmnp
0
the pressure will be on the home side than arsenal. arsenal should not play to defend but to win if they want to qualify
ultimategooner
1
super shit computer at it again
Bokacdilot
0
This computer changes prediction after every match what dull fingers operate this computer
Ruubkloru
0
That opta computer guy should take his thumb and compute hi A$$
ucheobi123
0
Real Madrid will make a comeback, mark my word
of purse with the help of referees
bodaklotz
0
Real Madrid will make a comeback, mark my word
With the lines man, bar and the ref it might be possible[Crylaugh][Crylaugh][Crylaugh] You were put in ur place, right? Such a small club
Jonbdkmouy
0
New favourites? Even Opta's supercomputer is a guesser. First guess failed, now it's a new one.
🤣
Jonbdkmouy
0
Real Madrid will make a comeback, mark my word
ok,it has been marked
hinbelnrtz
1
Computer has eat fried plantains therefore it can't trusted or rely upon any longer.
Kiebdeiuz
0
Madrid won't comeback..s0ck my dik later
The-Professor
4
Real Madrid will make a comeback, mark my word
rombdiopuz
2
New favourites? Even Opta's supercomputer is a guesser. First guess failed, now it's a new one.
Cicdekopr
3
who's this super computer self