Paul Merson: Gunners must win 1st leg by 2 goals to have hope of making UCL SFs

In his latest Sky Sports column, Paul Merson previews the Champions League quarter-finals, with Arsenal and Aston Villa both in action.

Mikel Arteta's Gunners face holders and 15-time Champions League winners Real Madrid, with the first leg at the Emirates on Tuesday night.

Villa, meanwhile, continue their journey a day later when they visit Paris Saint-Germain, who knocked out Premier League leaders Liverpool in the last round. The tie sees Unai Emery and Marco Asensio visit their former club.

Read below for the Magic Man's thoughts on the last-eight clashes...

'Arsenal have to win first leg - possibly by at least two'

Arsenal have got to win this first leg. Winning by one is the bare minimum, I think they will have to win it by at least two.

We saw it in last year's quarter-final with Bayern Munich, where it was comfortable for Bayern in the second leg, after the 2-2 draw at the Emirates. And I don't see Real Madrid not scoring two goals at the Bernabeu.

Real aren't playing well at the moment. Arsenal will hurt them because Real are conceding too many goals at the moment.

They lost to Valencia at the weekend, they lost at the Bernabeu to Real Sociedad in the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final, the game before that against Leganes they were 2-1 down before they came back and won 3-2.

But while they're not playing well, they always turn up in the Champions League. This is the worry for Arsenal.

Real should have gone out against Atletico Madrid, really, and they find a way. I remember a couple of years ago when they played against Chelsea in the 2022 knockout stages, Chelsea were comfortable at the Bernabeu but then Luka Modric plays one of the greatest passes I've ever seen with the outside of his boot to save them.

If Arsenal can get to a two-goal lead in the first leg, I think they have a chance.

It's a big ask for Arsenal - but I won't be judging Mikel Arteta on this. You have to weigh it up, they have no centre-forward and have lost a centre-back in Gabriel.

I judge Arteta next season when he gets the centre-forward. If they don't win the league after he gets the centre-back, I think he'll be in big trouble.

'Gabriel injury damages Arsenal's chances'

I thought it was a 50:50 chance when Bukayo Saka came back from injury. But now with Gabriel being injured, I say 25 per cent.

If you had a choice between Saka and Gabriel for these two legs, you would pick Gabriel. Because the way Arsenal will win this is if they make it a cagey cup tie. If this gets to a gung-ho football match, there's only one winner.

Saliba and Gabriel make each other better. They are like Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, they are much better playing together.

It's a big ask for Jakub Kiwior, if he is the one to start. Jurrien Timber has only played at centre-back once or twice, while Ben White has been out a long time.

You're asking someone who hardly plays - because he's not as good as the other two - to come into a Champions League quarter-final. Kiwior is alright, but he's not Arsenal.

And you're asking Kiwior to mark him. Kylian Mbappe, the best in the world or at least in the top three alongside Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.

He plays on the shoulder and if he gets through, I just don't see anybody catching him.

And I think that's the worry for me with Arsenal. They will have to win this football match and they have to chase it at times. That's where it's dangerous.

'Rashford's pace can hurt Villa'

I've got a good feeling about Aston Villa in this one.

It's a hard one for Villa but they have 100 per cent got the pace on the counter-attack and the guile to hurt PSG.

They have Marcus Rashford's pace, Morgan Rogers and John McGinn, they will make chances.

Villa will have to play a counter-attacking game and if PSG do push people forward, I just remember when Rashford did it to PSG where he was at Manchester United.

My only worry is I could never see Aston Villa doing what Liverpool did to PSG in the first leg. Any other cup tie in the world would have been over that night.

But Liverpool were a lot better in the second leg. I thought they destroyed PSG, who couldn't get out of their half that night. That might be the PSG that turns up.

But my worry is the first leg against Liverpool. If PSG play anywhere like that it's going to be hard for Aston Villa.

The first leg in Paris also might be the game where PSG hurt Villa a bit more. PSG will come out and I don't think Villa can play such a high line compared to what they usually play.

And if they do, you're never going to catch Ousmane Dembele in a month of Sundays.

I think if Villa lose by one in the first leg in Paris, they've got a chance. I think Villa are going to score goals in this tie.

The only thing is you've got no away goals - which I think was the worst change of rule I've ever seen.

That away goal was the name of the game, that's what Europe was all about. All it does is that you can go out and be negative in the first leg.

If you get beat 1-0 away, now it's a great result in Europe. When I played in Europe, you got beat 1-0 away and that's an atrocious result.