Real Madrid and Barcelona’s route to the Champions League final

The road to the Budapest final will be anything but straightforward for the three Spanish teams still alive in the Champions League. Buckle up.

Spanish football did not fully deliver during the league phase of the competition. Only Barcelona finished in the top eight, while Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid will have to go through the round of 16. The same fate has befallen Paris Saint-Germain, the 2025 champions, and Inter, last season’s finalists.

That scenario sets up potential matchups dripping with intrigue. Real Madrid already know they will face either Bodø/Glimt or Benfica, while Diego Simeone’s side will be drawn against Club Brugge or Galatasaray. As if that opening hurdle were not demanding enough, the path ahead looks anything but kind for the two Madrid clubs and Barcelona. To make matters worse, Madrid and Atlético will have home-field advantage in the round of 16, but they lose it in the quarterfinals – meaning they would play the second leg away from home.

Barcelona’s route to the UCL final

Hansi Flick’s team, who finished fifth in the league phase, could meet one of four sides in the round of 16: Monaco, Qarabag, PSG or Newcastle. That opens the door to a potentially wild last-16 showdown against the reigning champions.

Should Barcelona clear that obstacle, Liverpool or Tottenham could loom in the quarterfinals – again with the second leg on the road. A continental Clásico against Real Madrid would not be possible until at least a hypothetical semifinal.

Real Madrid’s route to the UCL final

Things do not look any easier for Real Madrid under Arbeloa. Beyond the frustration of having to play two extra games after coming so close to direct qualification for the last eight, the opponents lying in wait are daunting. In the round of 16, they would have to face either Manchester City or Sporting Portugal, and a route to the semifinals would then require getting past Arsenal or Bayern – arguably the two standout teams so far in the competition. Heavyweight clashes with everything on the line. Madrid would only be able to meet Barcelona or Atlético in the semifinals or the final.

Atletico Madrid’s route to the UCL final

Nor does the picture look rosy for Atlético. If they get past Club Brugge or Galatasaray, Liverpool or Tottenham await them in the round of 16, and the quarterfinals could bring Barcelona or Chelsea, depending on how the bracket falls. It is worth remembering that Luis Enrique’s PSG are also traveling along that same side of the draw. For the Spanish teams, this Champions League already feels like a via crucis – one packed with potential landmines in the knockout rounds.

And that is not the only surprise this competition could still deliver. Arsenal and Bayern, the two great powerhouses of this 2026 Champions League and bookmakers’ favorites for the title, are also holding their breath. The draw has placed them on the same path as Manchester City, should Pep Guardiola’s side make it through the round of 16. If everything goes to plan and City take care of business, a place in the semifinals would come down to a showdown with either Arsenal or Bayern – assuming they, too, do their part. No small matter.

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