Real Madrid set to fall short according to UEFA

A UEFA simulation study offers Girona a lifeline and suggests the cut-off points required to progress in the 24/25 Champions League.

A UEFA simulation study (conducted before the competition started) of accumulated points at the end of league stage in the new Champions League suggests that the the eighth-placed team will have around 17 points (17.1), a tally that is currently beyond Real Madrid’s grasp with the study also offering a sliver of hope for Girona should the Catalan side win their final two games.

The UEFA report backs up Carlo Ancelotti, who recently announced that his team will not end in the top eight (and avoid the playoff round) with the governing body suggesting that 17 points (17.1 specifically) will be the ceiling for direct access to the Round of 16. As things stand, Barça, who sit with 15 points would currently only need two more to be in the top-8 (they have to play against Benfica away and Atalanta at home); Atlético Madrid could also progress with positive results against Leverkusen and Salzburg.

For Barça, the objective is also to finish in the top two and secure a better seeding place for the next phase with current top placed side Liverpool the only team mathematically guaranteed a place in the Round of 16. With two wins in their final games, the Reds could end the phase on a hypothetical 24 points.

According to the study, Girona still have reasons for hope. UEFA’s simulation puts the cut-off point for progress at 7.6 points. Míchel’s men have three points. If they beat Milan and Arsenal, they would always go through with nine. However, here the simulation falters, because 24th place is currently occupied by Dinamo Zagreb with 8 points, which is 0.4 more than UEFA indicated in its report.

Another key position in the 36 team table is 16th place (and above), which allows the teams in this section to play the second leg of the play-off for access to the last 16 at home. UEFA sets this at 12.1 points with Barça already amassing the required points with Atlético on precisely 12 points. Real Madrid would require a victory in the two remaining games (Salzburg and Brest) along with a good goal average to possibly easily enter that group of teams.

Logically, as the study is a simulation, there is always the margin for error, but it certainly offers a series of guidelines and offers an indication of where teams stand at this stage of the competition with just two rounds of games outsdaning in the league phase.