TA: LIV think signing Guehi in winter is not economically available

According to The Athletic, when City entered the race in the winter window and the overall cost surged significantly, Liverpool deemed the deal poor value for money and chose to withdraw.

Although Liverpool came extremely close to signing him last summer, the club’s management always viewed him as an “opportunistic acquisition” rather than a necessity and remained committed to their self-sustaining financial and wage structure. 

“I’m now at the best club in England.”

For Liverpool fans, these words will undoubtedly sting when Guehi is officially unveiled as a Manchester City player on Monday.

Approximately 140 days ago, the English center-back was on the verge of joining Liverpool, the reigning Premier League champions managed by Slot. At that time, Liverpool had already agreed on a £35 million transfer fee with Crystal Palace.

With personal terms also settled, Guehi had even lain inside a scanner at a London clinic undergoing medical checks for Liverpool. However, on deadline day in early September, Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish abruptly halted the deal. Manager Glasner strongly opposed the sale due to the team’s severe shortage of defensive depth, and Parish ultimately changed his mind, deciding to keep Guehi for the final year of his contract rather than cash in.

At the time, most observers believed Guehi’s move to Anfield was merely delayed, not canceled. The player himself seemed keen on joining Liverpool, and for the club, signing him on a free transfer once his contract expired was an attractive option—they were willing to wait a year.

Now, however, those hopes have been dashed—Guehi has joined Manchester City for £20 million, plus add-ons, signing a five-and-a-half-year contract.

Watching a key transfer target snatched by a direct domestic rival is bound to anger some Liverpool supporters—a reaction that is entirely understandable. Guehi has many appealing qualities: he’s 25, proven in the Premier League, an English local player, and possesses leadership qualities.

Liverpool’s current defensive options are thin. Leoni and Conor Bradley suffered season-ending knee injuries in September and early January, respectively. The team remains heavily reliant on captain Van Dijk and Konaté, who have both started all 22 Premier League matches this season.

The only experienced backup center-back is Gomez, who has an inconsistent injury history. Moreover, Gomez will also need to provide cover at right-back over the coming months.

Considering Konaté’s inconsistent form and the stalled renewal talks (his contract expires in June), signing Guehi this month would have undeniably strengthened a crucial position for Liverpool.

But when Crystal Palace recently signaled they were willing to sell their captain mid-season, Liverpool opted not to compete directly with Manchester City. To understand this decision, one must look back to last summer.

Six months ago, Liverpool’s primary objective in that transfer window was to sign a young, first-team-experienced center-back with high upside potential. They had monitored Chelsea’s Colwill, Lens’ Yoro (who later joined Manchester United in summer 2024), and Huijsen (who moved from Bournemouth to Real Madrid in June 2023).

Ultimately, Liverpool got their man—they signed 18-year-old Leoni from Parma for an initial fee of £26 million, a move that structurally replaced Quansah, who had been sold to Bayer Leverkusen.

In that context, Guehi was seen as a good “market opportunity,” provided Crystal Palace were willing to let him go at a reasonable price. It wasn’t until after the Community Shield match at Wembley in August that Liverpool received a clear signal from Palace that a deal was feasible.

Initially, the FA Cup holders held firm for over £35 million, but with no other bidders driving up the price, they eventually accepted the figure, adding a 10% sell-on clause. Then came the dramatic deadline-day reversal that killed the deal—meaning Gomez, who had been linked with Brighton and AC Milan, stayed at the club.

Liverpool’s leadership was surprised and disappointed by the outcome but always regarded Guehi as a “nice-to-have,” not a necessity. They explicitly stated they would not attempt to revive the deal in the winter window and instead hoped to sign him on a free transfer after the season—even after Leoni suffered a torn ACL in his debut against Southampton in the League Cup, this strategy remained unchanged.

Liverpool never expected Guehi to be available in January—Palace had consistently insisted on keeping him until the end of the season, and the player himself was considering lucrative free-agent offers for the summer.

When Manchester City entered the picture and the situation shifted, Liverpool quickly assessed the total cost and concluded the deal lacked economic rationale. In fact, Bayern Munich and Arsenal also withdrew from the race, clearing the path for City. Manchester City’s move was largely driven by the recent injuries to Gvardiol and Rúben Dias.

The widely circulated claim that “Guehi cost just £20 million” is inaccurate. Sources familiar with the deal (who spoke anonymously to protect relationships) told The Athletic that Manchester City paid a substantial commission to the player’s agent, and Guehi’s wage demands were reportedly around £300,000 per week. Over the five-and-a-half-year contract, wages alone would amount to £85.8 million. (Manchester City insists his actual salary is significantly lower.)

Liverpool judged that such a total outlay did not align with their self-sustaining operational model. With sporting director Richard Hughes actively negotiating multiple player renewals, the deal could also have disrupted the club’s wage structure.

The reality is: if Guehi truly wanted to join Liverpool, he could have waited until summer. But ultimately, his decision was clearly influenced by the platform and financial offer from Manchester City.

He might not have been a “magic bullet” solving all of Liverpool’s problems, but on a defense severely depleted under Slot, he could have delivered tangible quality.

Setting aside emotion and looking purely at the numbers, Liverpool’s decision not to compete with Manchester City for Guehi does make logical sense.

However, it is also a gamble—because if further defensive injuries occur, Liverpool’s hope of “saving something” from this season could vanish entirely.