The Numbers Game: Yamal to take out Ballon d'Or frustrations on PSG?

In the eyes of many, Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain were the two outstanding teams in the Champions League last season.

They were the two highest-scoring teams in the competition, with Barca netting 43 times and PSG managing 38 goals, yet only one of the duo made the final.

Barca's stunning 7-6 aggregate defeat to Inter in the semi-finals ensured there would be no showpiece reunion between Luis Enrique and his former employers, with PSG instead routing the Nerazzurri 5-0.

There will be a showdown between two of Europe's heavyweights in the league phase on Wednesday, though a series of injuries have robbed the fixture of some of its star quality.

There should still be enough left to make it a must-watch match, however, and a statement win for either team could mark them out among the favourites for European glory.

But which way will Wednesday's game at Montjuic go? We delve into the data to pick out the storylines and players to watch in our Opta-powered preview.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is backing Barcelona, who have been stricken by fewer injuries than the defending champions.

Hansi Flick's team are given a 48.4% win probability compared to the 29% of PSG, with 22.6% of data-led simulations finishing level. 

Both teams made winning starts to their Champions League campaigns, with Barca winning 2-1 at Newcastle United and PSG thumping Atalanta 4-0.

And there is not too much to separate them in the supercomputer's tournament predictions, with PSG given an 11% chance of retaining their crown compared to Barca's 10% chance of lifting the trophy.

This will be the 16th meeting between Barca and PSG in major European competitions, with Barca managing six wins to PSG's five, with the other four matches being drawn.

But the Blaugrana's recent record against PSG is poor. Indeed, since winning three straight Champions League games against them in 2014-15 – under current PSG boss Luis Enrique – Barca have only won two of their last six meetings with the French side in the competition (one draw, three defeats).

PSG have won their last two away games versus Barca by 4-1 scorelines, in the Champions League's last 16 in February 2021 and in the quarter-finals in April 2024. 

That means they have a chance to become the first team to ever win three consecutive away games against Barca in major European competitions.

The holders will be without Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele, who is yet to recover from a hamstring injury he suffered on France duty. And the winger, who represented Barca from 2018 to 2023, had scored in both of his previous meetings with his former club.

It will be the fifth time that Luis Enrique has faced Barca, who he led to a LaLiga, Copa del Rey and Champions League treble in 2014-15. Having also won a league, cup and Champions League treble with PSG last term, the Spaniard is one of only two coaches to achieve that feat with multiple clubs, alongside Pep Guardiola (Barcelona and Manchester City).

He has only won one of four previous meetings with Barca, though two of his three defeats against the Catalan giants came before he coached them, with Celta Vigo in 2013-14.

Yamal set for Ballon d'Or statement?

It is fair to say that Lamine Yamal's father, Mounir Nasraou, did not agree with the results of the Ballon d'Or voting.

After Yamal finished as runner-up to Dembele last week, he described his son's snub as "the biggest moral damage done to a human being".

At 18 years old, Yamal surely has at least one Ballon d'Or prize in his future, and with the world's best player out on Wednesday, the teenager has an opportunity to lay down an early marker for the 2026 award.

Barca won four straight games in all competitions without Yamal after he aggravated a groin issue on international duty with Spain, but he returned as a 58th-minute substitute in Sunday's 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad in LaLiga.

Yamal wasted no time in making an impact, driving to the byline 62 seconds after coming on to deliver a right-footed cross for Robert Lewandowski to head in Barca's winner. 

Since the start of 2024-25, Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (26) is the only player from Europe's top five leagues to better Yamal's 24 assists in all competitions, with Barca team-mate Raphinha also on 24.

In his last 18 competitive matches for club and country, meanwhile, Yamal has 18 goal involvements, scoring eight times and providing 10 assists.

With Raphinha one of three key Barca players sidelined for Wednesday's game, alongside goalkeeper Joan Garcia and midfielder Gavi, Yamal will shoulder the brunt of the attacking burden.

Manchester United loanee Marcus Rashford, who scored both of Barca's goals in their 2-1 victory at Newcastle on matchday one, could also have a big role to play if he edges out Ferran Torres to start.

Rashford assisted Jules Kounde's opener against La Real, and he now has a goal involvement in each of his last five starts for Barca in all competitions (two goals, three assists).

Holders heavily depleted

Following their big win over Atalanta on matchday one, PSG have won their last four Champions League games by a combined scoreline of 12-1, and the last two by 9-0. 

Only one team has ever won three consecutive Champions League games by a margin of four or more goals, with PSG themselves doing so between October and November 2017.

But the injuries that have decimated Luis Enrique's squad in recent weeks surely make a repeat of that achievement highly unlikely. 

Captain and defensive stalwart Marquinhos is out with a thigh issue, while Desire Doue and Joao Neves are still recuperating from injuries of their own, and the pair are unlikely to regain fitness in time for this one.

PSG also saw Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia withdrawn early during Saturday's 2-0 win over Auxerre in Ligue 1, with both potentially doubtful.

Then, of course, there is the absence of Dembele, who led the line superbly throughout their triumphant Champions League run in 2024-25. 

Dembele has 40 combined goal involvements in all competitions in 2025 (29 goals, 11 assists), with only Harry Kane (44) and Kylian Mbappe (42) registering more, among players from Europe's top five leagues.

Dembele had 46 goal involvements for PSG in 2024-25 (33 goals, 13 assists), and in five seasons as a Barcelona player between 2018-19 and 2022-23, he never managed more than 22 goal involvements or 14 goals in a season, achieving those figures in 2018-19.

However, since Dembele joined PSG in August 2023, they have done a good job of coping when he has been absent. They have a 69.3% win ratio with him in their starting lineup in all competitions (52/75), which ticks up to 70.6% without him in their XI (36/51). 

And with Bradley Barcola, Goncalo Ramos and Lee Kang-in in reserve, Luis Enrique can still call upon plenty of attacking firepower. 

The Spaniard might also hope to exploit set-piece scenarios, after centre-backs Illia Zabarnyi and Lucas Beraldo both netted from corner routines against Auxerre.

PSG have netted four times from corners in six Ligue 1 games this season, one more than they managed in their previous 18 matches in the competition, while their five goals from set-plays this season have come from a figure of just 2.1 expected goals (xG).

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Barcelona – Robert Lewandowski 

Lewandowski's goal against Real Sociedad saw him enter the top 10 for all-time foreign scorers for Barca in LaLiga, equalling Brazil star Neymar on 105 goals in the competition.

Four of those efforts have arrived this season, but Lewandowski has only scored once in five Champions League outings against PSG, with that lone strike coming in December 2017 for Bayern Munich.

His 450 minutes-per-goal ratio against the French side is his worst against any opponent in the competition.

Paris Saint-Germain – Nuno Mendes

Since the start of last season, PSG have averaged more successful dribbles per game than any other team who have been involved in the last two Champions League campaigns (11.9). 

Left-back Mendes has the joint-most for them in this period, level with Barcola on 30, and he also achieved the most in their 4-0 win over Atalanta (five).