UCL situation: What every team needs to qualify for the knockout or the playoffs

The Champions League league phase is coming to an end. 

In a breath-stopping final matchday, with all 18 games kicking off simultaneously, almost everything is still up for grabs. The only certainties are that Arsenal and Bayern Munich are already through to the round of 16, and that four teams are eliminated with nothing at stake regardless of results: Villarreal, Kairat Almaty, Slavia Prague and Eintracht Frankfurt.

Here we break down what each team needs to reach the round of 16 or, at the very least, the playoff.

Arsenal (21 points):

A single point will secure top spot in the league phase. They are at home against already-eliminated Kairat Almaty. Arsenal would only lose first place if they are beaten and Bayern overturn a five-goal difference.

Bayern Munich (18 points):

Already qualified for the round of 16, Bayern could still finish first if they thrash PSV and Arsenal lose. A draw would lock in second place, guaranteeing home advantage in the return leg of every knockout tie through to the final. Only Real Madrid and Liverpool could strip them of that privilege if Bayern lose in Eindhoven.

Real Madrid (15 points):

Real Madrid are very close to the top eight. Arbeloa’s side sit third on 15 points after last week’s win over Monaco. A victory against Benfica would guarantee a top-eight finish, and they could even move up to second if Bayern lose to PSV. A draw might also be enough to avoid the round-of-32 playoff, as Madrid boast an excellent goal difference (+11), the best among the ten teams that could finish on 16 points. Only six of those ten can make the top eight, since Arsenal and Bayern are already clear. Even so, Madrid should push for the win to secure the best possible seeding and home-field advantage. A defeat would seriously complicate their chances.

Liverpool (15 points):

In the same position as Madrid, but with a weaker goal difference. They host Qarabag at Anfield. Money would suggest they’re safe... recent form under Arne Slot throws a whole bunch of doubt.

Tottenham (14 points):

They visit an already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt. A win sends Spurs straight into the round of 16. A draw or defeat would leave them dependent on results elsewhere. If four teams finish above them, they drop into the playoff.

PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City and Atlético Madrid (13 points):

All seven are guaranteed at least a playoff spot, but none control their own destiny for a top-eight finish. Level on points, if they all win, progression will come down to overall goal difference. Their chances improve if Tottenham fail to win, or if both Liverpool and Real Madrid lose. Barcelona appear best placed, as they host Copenhagen. Newcastle and PSG face each other in a pivotal clash. Chelsea play Napoli, City take on Galatasaray, and Atlético host Bodø/Glimt.

Barcelona:

Barcelona go into the final round with a realistic shot at the top eight. They must beat Copenhagen at home – and preferably by as many goals as possible, as goal difference could prove decisive. A draw would leave their chances slim, while defeat would all but end their hopes.

Atlético Madrid:

Atlético also retain top-eight ambitions. With 13 points, they must beat Bodø/Glimt at the Metropolitano and do so emphatically. Their +3 goal difference is the second-worst among the ten teams that could reach 16 points. A draw does not mathematically eliminate them, but makes qualification extremely difficult. A loss would be almost terminal.

Juventus and Inter (12 points):

To reach the round of 16, both must win and hope for multiple slip-ups from the teams on 13 points and from Tottenham. Juventus face Monaco, while Inter have a tough trip to Dortmund. Both have already secured a playoff berth.

Borussia Dortmund (11 points):

A draw against Inter would guarantee Dortmund a playoff spot. Victory would give them a slim mathematical chance of the top eight, but it would require a miracle. Their Champions League survival is only truly at risk with defeat – and even then, nine teams would need to overtake them. A playoff place looks inevitable.

No round-of-16 possibilities

Galatasaray and Qarabag (10 points):

They travel to face City and Liverpool respectively. Defeat seems likely, leaving them reliant on results elsewhere. They must finish above at least three of the nine teams below them to stay in the competition.

Marseille, Leverkusen and Monaco (9 points):

A win guarantees continued European involvement. A draw or loss would leave them dependent on teams on 8, 7 and 6 points. Marseille play Bruges (seven points), Leverkusen host eliminated Villarreal, and Monaco face Juventus.

Athletic Club, PSV, Olympiacos, Napoli and Copenhagen (8 points):

Defeat would make qualification extremely difficult. For Athletic to reach the playoff while minimizing dependence on other results, they need a big win over Sporting at San Mamés. At present, their goal difference is better than Olympiacos, Napoli and Copenhagen, but worse than PSV. Draws would leave these sides relying on teams below them.

Athletic Club:

Athletic still have a path to the top 24 after last round’s win over Atalanta. With eight points, victory over Sporting would put them very close to the round-of-32 playoff, though goal difference could still come into play. A draw might suffice but would require plenty of help. Defeat would not mathematically eliminate them, but would almost certainly do so in practice.

Bruges (7 points):

They must beat Marseille, or draw and hope Athletic, PSV, Olympiacos, Napoli and Copenhagen all lose heavily, while the teams on six points fail to win.

Bodø/Glimt, Benfica, Pafos, Union Saint-Gilloise and Ajax (6 points):

Only victory gives them any hope – and even then, they would need the maximum number of defeats from teams on 9, 8 and 7 points to have even a slim chance of reaching the playoff.

Join us at AS USA today when we will be bringing you live coverage of the action and updates as they change on who’s in and out.