UCL supercomputer backs Arsenal to beat Real Madrid—but can they go all the way?

ARSENAL have the edge over Real Madrid in their blockbuster Champions League quarter-final tussle... according to Opta's supercomputer.

The Gunners host Carlo Ancelotti's Spanish giants at the Emirates for the first leg of their last eight tie on Tuesday night.

Real Madrid have won two of the last three editions of the Champions League and six of the last 11.

Ancelotti's men overcame Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Wembley Stadium in last year's final.

Despite the weight of history being on Real Madrid's side, Opta's supercomputer reckons that Arsenal have the narrow edge in their tie.

The Gunners, who have never won the European Cup in their history, are given a 50.2 per cent chance of reaching the semi-finals, with Real Madrid on 49.8 per cent.

Arsenal defeated PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate in the last round, while Real Madrid beat rivals Atletico on penalties after drawing 1-1 across two legs.

Both sides sit second in their respective domestic leagues - Arsenal 11 points behind Liverpool and Real four off Barcelona.

The Gunners will have to do without key defender Gabriel following his season-ending hamstring injury last week - while Gabriel Jesus, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kai Havertz and Riccardo Calafiori all remain out.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, may be without both Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin - with 19-year-old Fran Gonzalez potentially having to deputise in goal. Dani Carvajal, Aurelien Tchouameni, Ferland Mendy and former Gunner Dani Ceballos are all likely to miss out.

The winner of Arsenal and Real Madrid will take on Paris Saint-Germain or Aston Villa in the semi-finals.

French champions PSG are overwhelming favourites to go through against Unai Emery's team, having knocked out Liverpool in the last round.

Luis Enrique's side are given a 71.3 per cent probability of beating Villa and 36.2 per cent shot of also then beating Real Madrid or Arsenal to reach the final.

The Gunners are said to have a 29.5 per cent chance of making it to the Munich final, with Real Madrid narrowly behind on 25.2 per cent and Villa all the way back on 9.1 per cent.

Mikel Arteta's men are third-favourites to win the competition, given a 15.6 per cent likelihood of doing so.

Barcelona are seen as most likely on 23.1 per cent, with PSG second on 19.3 per cent.

Real Madrid are viewed as fifth-favourites on 12.2 per cent, behind Inter Milan in fourth spot on 13.8 per cent.

Barca face Borussia Dortmund in what has been seen as the weaker side of the draw.

Hansi Flick's side are overwhelming favourites to go through on 78.2 per cent, compared to Dortmund's 21.8 per cent.

In fact, Dortmund are seen as the least likely remaining team to win the competition, given just a 1.5 per cent shot of doing so.

Villa are second-to-last on 3.7 per cent, while interestingly Bayern Munich, the potential hosts, are sixth on just 10.8 per cent.

Harry Kane and Co will take on Inter in the quarters, with the 2023 finalists just favoured in the tie at 51.5 per cent compared to Bayern's 48.5 per cent - with the winner to take on Barcelona or Dortmund in the semis.