Arsenal transfer news: Sesko transfer price sky rockets in £99m Berta dilemma

Arsenal transfer news as Benjamin Sesko's price changes over time with a summer exit almost certain - but at what cost?

When Arsenal, and most of the rest of the chasing European pack, failed to sign Benjamin Sesko last summer, it was always likely to be a serious blow. At £55million via his release clause at RB Leipzig, the then-22-year-old was unlikely to get any cheaper.

Coming off the back of goals in seven consecutive Bundesliga games and 11 in 15 (plus two assists), Sesko was the early talk of the town ahead of Euro 2024. His decision to turn down Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United (among others) in favour of another year in Germany, has proved a good one.

Sesko started strongly in a Leipzig team that went unbeaten for the first eight league matches. He only scored two during that time but was firmly the starting striker, where he hadn't been 12 months earlier.

Another impressive winter run took him to eight goals by the end of January and he continued to fire then in at a decent rate towards the end, even as things really dipped for the team. Sesko ended with 13 goals and five assists including four in the Champions League and another four in the German Cup.

He may have scored fewer goals from more minutes (notably, his starts went from 17 to 30, and minutes from 1,500 to almost 2,500) but the underlying metrics improved. He put up a higher expected goals (xG) tally, which had been a point of worry for some watching.

Sesko has drawn early criticism for being a poor finisher but a scorer of wonderful goals. 27 Bundesliga goals from 17.6xG is a massive overperformance which has raised some concern over how he would translate that to another league, especially in England.

As a young player, his overall output has not put teams off being interested in buying him. Arsenal, still searching for a striker after two years of relying increasingly on Kai Havertz to carry the load up front, are the main suitors.

Unlike Chelsea and United, they have returned with the full ambition of signing Sesko this summer. Whether new sporting director Andrea Berta sees Sesko as the ideal fit remains to be seen, but he is certainly in the conversation.

Should Arsenal go ahead with pursuing a deal, it is expected to cost upwards of £70million. Reports have suggested it could be up to £92.5million.

How does this tally with Sesko's estimated market worth? Well, things are moving in that direction, even if they have not reached it just yet.

According to CIES Football Observatory, a fair price for Sesko is currently around £76million to £99million. That would be an enormous outlay on a player coming from a league of often inflated attacking numbers, but also reflects just what the landscape looks like.

Sesko was seen as being worth this £55million release clause last summer despite the relatively small sample size in a top league. Teams would have paid to buy him at that figure but now do not have such a way in.

The question is, what should the limit be? Leipzig will be without European football next season and Sesko has Champions League experience. They also know that Arsenal are desperate to sign a striker and have long-term interest in Sesko.

Arsenal have the financial capacity to go big on the Slovenian as well. Transfermarkt's crowd-sourced valuation tracker brings his value at closer to £65million, though.

That is still £15million higher than it was at th end of May 2024, before he penned a contract extension at Leipzig. Sesko's trajectory continues to be a steep line upwards, as well.

His worth has more than doubled since moving from RB Salzburg in Austria almost two years ago. With goals everywhere he has played in his senior career to date, Sesko would have expectations placed upon him to become the answer to Mikel Arteta's needs, but for a young player, there is also an adaptation period.

He has rawness and areas that will be ironed out over time. Simply moving to the Premier League will also see his stock rise.

Sesko may well be overpriced but it is worth acknowledging that someone's price is ultimately whatever someone else will pay. If Arsenal are willing to stretch to more than £75million for Sesko then that becomes his value, whether it is accurate of his abilities or not.