This Sunday will see the Spanish Super Cup final, a showdown between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. We set out to ask several chatbots and artificial intelligence assistants who they see as the favorite for the game.
ChatGPT
The first question was put to ChatGPT, which replied:
“Bookmakers and probability models usually place Real Madrid as a slight favorite, although the margin is small given that this is a one-off Clásico.”
ChatGPT then offered approximate percentages for the Spanish Super Cup decider: Real Madrid (52–55%) and FC Barcelona (45–48%). Finally, although the chatbot sees Los Blancos as marginal favorites, it also noted:
“FC Barcelona, however, still have very real chances thanks to their ability to control games, the presence of decisive young players, and the fact that Clásicos often defy any prior logic.”
Google Gemini
Google Gemini, when asked who the favorite is for this edition of El Clásico, answered:
“For the 2026 Spanish Super Cup final, being played this Sunday, January 11, in Saudi Arabia, FC Barcelona start as favorites against Real Madrid.”
As for win probabilities, it put Barça at 47–51%, Madrid at 28–31%, with the draw at 22–25%. Explaining why it favors the Blaugrana, Google Gemini pointed to the team coached by Hansi Flick being in blistering form, enjoying superior fitness, greater attacking strength, and a recent tournament history that includes a convincing win over Real Madrid in last year’s Spanish Super Cup final.
Grok, from ‘X’
When asked about its favorite for the Spanish Super Cup, Grok – the chatbot from social network X – also gave the edge to FC Barcelona. It should be noted that Grok based its conclusion on data from several bookmakers and prediction platforms. Its percentages were: FC Barcelona (48–55%), Real Madrid (28–36%), and a draw (22–25%). Its reasoning was as follows:
“Barcelona arrive as favorites due to their spectacular form under Hansi Flick – a run of nine straight wins, a 5–0 rout of Athletic in the semifinals, strong defensive solidity, and a devastating attack with players such as Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Lewandowski. Real Madrid, despite their immense quality (Mbappé back, Vinícius, Bellingham), struggled in the semis (2–1 vs. Atlético) and have been more inconsistent this season compared with Barça.”
Meta AI
Finally, when Meta AI was asked, its response was unequivocal:
“FC Barcelona are the favorites to win the 2026 Spanish Super Cup, with a 43.86% chance of victory, according to bookmakers.”
It added that the Blaugrana reach the final on a strong run, leading LaLiga and showing great solidity in their play, with their ability to manage decisive games and the stature of their stars putting them a step ahead in forecasts.
“On the other hand, Real Madrid have a 31.25% chance of winning, and although they have had an irregular start to the season, their experience in knockout matches and the quality of their players make them a dangerous opponent. The final promises to be an exciting game, with a Clásico that is always synonymous with intensity and goals,” it concluded.