The exit of three Italian teams from the Champions League this week has given the Premier League the upper hand in the race for an extra spot for next season's competition.
Under the rules for the expanded 36-team edition, two countries are able to secure bonus places based on their coefficient points across UEFA competitions. Last year, Italy and Germany were the beneficiaries, but Serie A sides have struggled this term.
Bologna took that bonus fifth spot, but failed to make it out of the league phase. AC Milan followed them out on Tuesday after suffering a narrow aggregate defeat to Feyenoord, with Atalanta stunned by Club Brugge, while Juventus lost a play-off of their own against PSV EIndhoven on Wednesday.
That means Manchester City's exit at the hands of Real Madrid is not as painful for the Premier League as it might be. There are still three English sides in the round of 16, but Inter Milan are Italy's sole remaining representatives.
As reported by ESPN, the Premier League occupies top spot after Wednesday's games with a score of 20.892 - the total number of coefficient points divided by the number of teams in Europe from that country. That won't change after Thursday's play-off games, with Manchester United and Tottenham (Europa League) and Chelsea (Conference League) moving straight through to the round of 16 thanks to their league phase results.
Spain are second with a score of 18.535. They also have six of their seven teams still alive, with Girona dropping out of the Europa Leagie, but have two more teams at risk in Thursday's play-offs.
Real Sociedad hold a 2-1 lead as they welcome FC Midtjylland to Anoeta, leaving them in an advantageous position. Real Betis are also looking good to progress in the Conference League after a 3-0 first-leg victory away to Gent.
Italy sit third despite their midweek woes, scoring 17.812. They have one team guaranteed to progress in each competition - Inter in the Champions League, Lazio in the Europa League and Fiorentina in the Conference League - while Roma can join Lazio in the round of 16 if they're able to overcome Porto in their own play-off.
Porto are one of three sides remaining from Portugal's Primeira Liga (16.050) of an original five, with Sporting losing their Champions League play-off against Borussia Dortmund and Braga dropping out of the Europa League. Benfica are still alive in the Champions League after scraping past Monaco in their own play-off, while Vitoria are into the Conference League round of 16.
Germany (16.046) and France (14.857) are next up, though both have already lost several teams from European competition this term. Belgium (14.250) and the Netherlands (14.250) are a little further back, but both have five teams remaining as we head into Thursday's action.
That figure for Belgium looks likely to drop, with Gent facing an uphill struggle against Betis. Union Saint-Gilloise and Anderlecht both lost their first legs in the Europa League, but Club Brugge and Cercle Brugge are into the last 16 in the Champions League and Conference League respectively.
The Netherlands, in contrast, look very healthy. Ajax, AZ and Twente all hold first-leg leads in the Europa League, with Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven both into the Champions League round of 16, more than making up for Go Ahead Eagles' failure to make it through Conference League qualification.
The Premier League still holds the upper hand, then, and this is good news for the handful of sides still in contention for a top-five finish. Just six points separate Nottingham Forest in third and Newcastle in seventh, while we can't rule out Fulham, Aston Villa and Brighton with a third of the season remaining.
Last but not least, it's still possible for as many as seven Premier League teams to take part in next season's Champions League. That would require English clubs' coefficient performance to earn the league a fifth place, and then for teams placing sixth or lower to win the Champions League and Europa League - with Villa currently ninth, and United and Spurs in the bottom half, it's unlikely but not impossible.