Bologna head coach Vincenzo Italiano acknowledges Aston Villa are superior to his side on paper, but he expects their Europa League quarter-final tie to be a "50-50" affair.
Villa will travel to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Thursday for the first leg of their last-eight European tie, and they do so as favourites.
The Opta supercomputer assigns Unai Emery's men a 32% chance of lifting the trophy, with Villa triumphing in more than twice as many tournament simulations as the joint second-favourites, Celta Vigo and Porto (both 15%).
Bologna are only assigned a 4% chance of winning Europe's second-tier club competition, the lowest among the eight remaining teams.
Villa have also won their last seven Europa League games and this could be the sixth instance of an English team winning eight consecutive matches in major European competitions.
Each of the previous five have come since the start of 2022-23 – West Ham (eight in 2022-23), Man City (10, May 2023 to March 2024), Liverpool (eight, April 2024 to January 2025), Chelsea (nine in 2024-25) and Arsenal (eight in 2025-26).
Though Italiano recognises the strength of Bologna's European foes, he has confidence in his own team, with the Rossoblu only losing one of their last 15 major European matches (W8 D6).
"It's 50-50. You all know how complicated this match is, but we have to show our value, our strength and our qualities," Italiano told reporters.
"We know the opponents because we've faced them twice [in the Champions League last season and the Europa League in September], but each match tells a different story.
"We will have to manage the game over 180 minutes. Tomorrow is important because the first game gives you the opportunity to set up for the second leg in a certain way.
Niente scorciatoie. Lavoro duro. #BolognaAstonVilla #UEL #WeAreOne pic.twitter.com/Fl7HLd2b7n
— Bologna FC 1909 (@Bolognafc1909) April 8, 2026
"We have every chance to do it. We have to take our chances because it is a big pride to be in the final eight.
"I hope that the supporters will always continue to be with us, like I asked at the beginning of the season. On paper, Aston Villa are superior to us, but with everyone's help, we can overturn those predictions."
Bologna's only loss in their last 15 major European matches was against Villa in this season's Europa League group phase (1-0), and the Villans also won 2-0 when the teams met in last term's Champions League, 2-0 in October 2024.