Aitor Karanka’s Tricky Trees are odds on favourites for this Midlands clash, but our tipster doesn’t expect Garry Monk’s Blues to leave empty-handed
Nottingham Forest and Birmingham go head-to-head at the City Ground in the Championship on Saturday teatime.
Forest, 4/1 (5.0) with William Hill for promotion, have set their sights on a top six challenge following a summer of ambitious recruitment which has seen the likes of Sam Byram and Lewis Grabban join.
By contrast, Birmingham are big outsiders for promotion at 33/1 (34.0) and, with a similar squad to the one that avoided the drop on the final day last season, would be content with a year away from the dogfight.
The hosts are understandably 10/11 (1.91) favourites to record a second league win of the campaign, after a 1-0 win over Reading two weeks ago.
Birmingham though were unlucky to accrue only one point from their last two clashes with Swansea and Bolton and are 3/1 (4.0) to record the first win of the campaign they have been threatening.
A draw has occurred in five of the combined eight Championship matches involving these sides this season and a repeat is 5/2 (3.5).
Portuguese wide man Diogo Goncalves is a doubt here so academy graduate Matty Cash, who deserved his goal in the 2-2 draw at Wigan last time out, could start on the right-wing.
Garry Monk is unlikely to make many changes from the side which lost against Bolton in midweek despite a competitive performance, but speedy forward Che Adams could replace Omar Bogle. David Davis is a long-term absentee.
Inverted right winger Jota has had five shots blocked so far this season, the joint-most of all the wide men in the Championship, and the enigmatic Spaniard is 4/1 (5.0) to score anytime.
From the left, Jacques Maghoma has hit the target five times – only two wide men have had more – and the former Sheffield Wednesday man is 4/1 (5.0) to bag at any point.
Birmingham’s strikers are currently lacking confidence in front of goal, so Jota and Maghoma could be their chief threats.
Forest looked excellent in the 1-1 draw with West Brom, but have appeared slightly flat going forward in the subsequent two league matches, which saw them record just a combined seven shots on target.
There is reason to think the visitors are slightly undervalued in the market here, so our best bet is the 17/20 (1.85) on the Birmingham or draw Double Chance.