Over the last season and a half it has often appeared that two things are keeping Diego Simeone at Atletico Madrid – his lucrative contract until 2024, and the nagging desire to win the Champions League which he has come so close to doing on two occasions.
The contract is still in place, but the European dream seems to be getting further away not closer and the failure to get out of a group that included Porto, Bayer Leverkusen and Club Brugge underlined that.
Atletico's Champions League exit was confirmed last week but they crashed out of Europe altogether after finishing bottom of their group following a 2-1 defeat to Porto on Tuesday.
Simeone's status as the world's most expensive coach has been questioned many times but the answer always comes back the same – the UEFA prize money he earns the club, pays for it.
Early elimination will cost Atletico at least the £8.4m given to teams that reach the last 16 plus the £9.3m that would have been earned had they made it to the quarter-finals. That £17.7m is not far off the sum paid to Simeone net per season.
They do not even have the Europa League, and the potential earnings from Europe's second-tier competition, to fall back on.
And they may need to sell players too with the spotlight currently on the most expensive substitute in European football right now – Joao Felix. He has started none the club's last five league games.
Simeone said in his press conference on Friday that he didn't care what people thought of him. But the cooling of passion from some fans must hurt. The noisiest supporters behind the goal at Atletico Madrid's Metropolitano Stadium have stopped singing his name – the old 'Ole! Ole! Ole! Cholo Simeone!' chant can no longer be heard.
These are not exactly Arsene Wenger's last days at Arsenal but fans do seem to be increasingly split over a manager who has won two league titles and reached two Champions League finals but has struggled to take the club where those who signed Joao Felix for a club record €127m (£109m) wanted him to take it.
The two have never seen eye to eye and increasingly they are not trying to hide it. Not only has he not started since last month but when he comes on late in games he tends to fail to make an impact and then disappear down the tunnel on his own while the team applaud the supporters in the middle of the pitch.
In one game he even threw a bib down after warming up for most of the second half and still not coming on. He has failed to score so far this season.
Felix doesn't fit into Simeone's formula for how a team should play and without him Atletico have won four of their last five in LaLiga to move five points behind second placed Barcelona.
'We have reinvented ourselves many times,' said Simeone on Friday. 'No one is irreplaceable. We found that out in 2014 when we won the league but many players left.'
That title win with a 1-1 draw on the last day at the Camp Nou was 'peak Simeone's Atletico' with a very definite recipe for success – a back-four of 'they shalt not pass' defenders; a midfield quartet often made up of four central midfield players; and a front two with two hard-working forwards who could destroy sides on the break, one of whom could also drop back to make a middle five when Atletico didn't have the ball.
He has found a similar balance of late and even though it didn't arrive in time to fix the Champions League situation, league form has picked up.
Club president Enrique Cerezo has said in the past of Simeone: 'He is a huge asset for us and it's people from the outside that maybe don't want him to continue.'
But even if that affirmation still rings true, 2024 looks like the cut-off date for his moving on to Italy or the Argentina job.
The club will have already began thinking about long-term replacements. There is an admiration for former Valencia manager Marcelino but he will probably be Spain's new coach in January. They like current Spain coach Luis Enrique but there will be plenty trying to sign him.
For now it's Simeone for the foreseeable. Atletico went through over 50 coaching changes in 25 years before him. Jesus Gil, the club's previous owner, and father of Miguel Angel the club's CEO, once changed six coaches in one season. Simeone's almost 11 years at the club is a sporting miracle.
The last time he was written off he guided the side to the league title in that peculiar pandemic ruined season of 2020-2021. He will relish the challenge between now and the end of the season but being out of Europe altogether, and if they slip away from neighbours Real Madrid in the league, could lead to a change being demanded from outside and perhaps even inside the club.
