The maths is simple: 40+ does not go into 25.
Chelsea acquired 14 permanent senior players over the last two transfer windows and only Nottingham Forest (33) have used more players in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (32).
Benoit Badiashile, David Datro Fofana and Noni Madueke, all January signings, had to be excluded from Chelsea's Champions League knockouts squad because the club had reached its quota. Unless they win the trophy, they won't have that problem next season.
Graham Potter had so many players that, as revealed by The Athletic this week, he had a regular training group of 33 to 40 players, which required a nine-v-nine game alongside the typical 11-v-11. He repeatedly stressed the need for “a balance” of players and failed to name an unchanged starting XI in 22 Premier League games.
He has been replaced by interim Frank Lampard, who signs on until the end of the season, and it will be fascinating how he uses this bloated squad during his second spell in charge. He will be reunited with a few familiar faces, as well as plenty of new ones. Some, including his uncle Harry Redknapp, suggested Lampard paid the price last time for the struggles of big signings such as Timo Werner (who has since left) and Kai Havertz. But there had been growing frustration within the squad by the time Lampard was sacked in January 2021, with some players complaining about a lack of tactical instructions and not being spoken to for months. Now Lampard has an even larger squad to manage.
Alex Ferguson, the Premier League's most successful manager with 13 titles in 26 years, viewed players on three levels: “30 and older, 23 to 30, and the younger ones. The idea was that the younger players were developing and would meet the standards the older ones had set”.
Just four of Chelsea's Premier League players this season are in their positional 'peak age'. Ten of their 13 wingers, attacking midfielders and strikers are yet to hit what would typically be defined as their best years, but there is a need for a further refresh in midfield and central defence.
Havertz (82.1 per cent) is Chelsea's only 'core player' this season — defined here as having played more than 75 per cent of their league minutes — but the German has largely operated at No 9 when many view him as a No 10.
In the top six, Arsenal have eight core players, Manchester City four, Newcastle United nine, Tottenham Hotspur five, Manchester United five and Brighton & Hove Albion seven.
The Athletic have curated a 30-player Chelsea squad for next season, including under-21s.
Loanees, transfer links, contract length and this season's performance/playing time are considered, with the intention of creating a tactically functional squad, even if important but undeterminable factors such as group dynamics and communication barriers are harder to accurately predict.
These are the Premier League squad rules for next season:
Caveats acknowledged, here is The Athletic's prospective squad. (You probably disagree with it.)
Goalkeepers
“We are in no rush to label anyone a No 1 or a No 2 or anything like that,” said Potter in October.
“We've got two goalkeepers and in an ideal world, we want football to decide. That's a good situation for us.”
A shoulder injury has sidelined Edouard Mendy, who was first choice under Thomas Tuchel and who defends his box more actively than Kepa Arrizabalaga, but, recently, the Spain goalkeeper has been a better shot-stopper and ball-player.
Either or both could leave, which would require at least one external replacement. No European competition would reduce demand for a competitive second-choice goalkeeper, so Marcus Bettinelli (current third-choice) could be upgraded to back-up with an academy goalkeeper — Gabriel Slonina or Lucas Bergstrom — being fast-tracked to the first-team squad.
Wing-backs Ben Chilwell (left) and Reece James (right) are Chelsea's super-strength but they are injury prone. Versatile pair Marc Cucurella and Malo Gusto — signed in January and currently on loan at Lyon — should provide cover.
Kalidou Koulibaly was only signed last summer but could depart, which is manageable given the return of 20-year-old Levi Colwill, a left-footed centre-back who has shone on loan in Brighton's high-possession system.
Cesar Azpilicueta (contract expires next summer) and Trevoh Chalobah (homegrown) could leave and would need external replacements. Chelsea are lacking physical centre-backs who can dominate the aerial battle.
Potter used four different back-three configurations in his final four games. The last, against Aston Villa, saw James (5ft 10in, 179cm) and Cucurella (5ft 8in) as 'laterals' (outside centre-backs) selected because Potter felt “that's where the space would be and they can construct attacks well”.
Midfielders
Midfield is a problem area for Chelsea. Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Mason Mount and Conor Gallagher are homegrown but very specific, different midfielders. All three, plus Mateo Kovacic, could leave, with Mount — who has been linked to Tuchel's Bayern Munich — and Loftus-Cheek moving into their final contract year.
Mount's end product has dropped off and his primary traits are defensive contributions and between-the-lines play. Carney Chukwuemeka, 19, is Chelsea's closest in-house replacement and would not count towards their 25-man limit but they need to recruit a ready-made No 10.
Gallagher's strengths are his stamina, late runs into the box and defending in midfield areas. These suited Crystal Palace (where he was on loan) better than Chelsea, who would need to pair him with a technical partner.
Making Denis Zakaria's loan from Juventus permanent seems sensible. Eighteen-year-old Lewis Hall is adaptable enough to play wing-back (eg, away to Fulham) or in central midfield (eg, away to Liverpool), similar to how previous coaches have used Loftus-Cheek.
Enzo Fernandez's metronomic performances as a No 4 (or No 5 in Argentina, a playmaking defensive midfielder) ought to be evidence for the next Chelsea head coach to build the team around him. He thrived in a double pivot at Benfica and at the base of Argentina's midfield triangle in their victorious 2022 World Cup.
Enzo Fernandez, the metronome — analysing Chelsea's British transfer record signing
Particularly since Jorginho's departure in January could be followed by N'Golo Kante in the summer. The France international has evolved from a box-to-box midfielder to an “Orchestrator” but is yet to sign a new contract and will be a free agent in a few months.
Tuchel once called the Chelsea No 9 shirt “cursed”. Tammy Abraham in 2019-20 was the last time a Chelsea player scored 15 league goals in a season.
Havertz, signed as a No 10 from Bayer Leverkusen in 2020, is Chelsea's top scorer (seven league goals) but has missed chances and offers more playing off a No 9 than as the focal point.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's ill-fated spell will surely end. He was reunited with Tuchel for all of five days before the German was sacked and Potter left him out of the Champions League knockouts squad. January loan signing Joao Felix — who Chelsea should look to permanently acquire — has already played more minutes (846) than Aubameyang (844) in all competitions.
Joao Felix, Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Madueke and Christopher Nkunku (arriving this summer) are 'fauxwards': forwards that play across the front line but do not suit the No 9 role, better at roaming in deeper positions and combining. Chelsea need a No 9 who can attack crosses one-touch, occupy centre-backs and stretch defences to make space for those deeper forwards.
It is borderline laughable that Romelu Lukaku — with 15-plus league goals in five different seasons for three Premier League clubs and two 20-plus-goal Serie A campaigns at Inter Milan — does not have a viable route back into Chelsea's squad. Chelsea are the only club where he has failed to score 15 or more league goals once in a season.
Chelsea will likely recruit a No 9 but 21-year-old Armando Broja (6ft 3in) could play a role. He scored nine times on loan in a struggling Southampton side last season, albeit in a front two, but has missed half of this season with a cruciate ligament injury he picked up in December.
On the wings, Callum Hudson-Odoi's route back to the first team has a Mudryk-shaped block. The 22-year-old has only played 605 Bundesliga minutes on loan at Bayer Leverkusen this season without completing a full 90 and another loan spell is likely, which would open a slot for a new No 9. However, he has shown enough in the past that if he stays, he would add depth on both flanks.
Sales need to be made because Mudryk, Broja, Fernandez and Badiashile are all in their final season of under-21 eligibility so will need to be registered next season. A combination of irremediable circumstances (ie, Lukaku, Aubameyang) and sufficient cover (ie, Christian Pulisic at left wing) justifies those moves.
And hands up who had any idea that Baba Rahman (on his seventh loan) and Tiemoue Bakayoko (fourth loan) were still contracted to Chelsea?
Permanent departures
To limit the training group to 30, nine loans are needed:
Johan Cruyff, Barcelona's second-most successful manager, once said: “Choose the best player for every position and you'll end up not with a strong XI, but with 11 strong 1s.”
Chelsea have plenty of “strong 1s”, perhaps too many. No wonder Potter called it “probably the hardest job in football”.