If Serie A ended today, Juventus' season would be a failure given the initial conditions and the money spent in the January transfer market.
Massimiliano Allegri's side has less quality than his predecessors Maurizio Sarri and Andrea Pirlo, but he has built a greater defensive unit than they did.
ALLEGRI AND SARRI'S DIFFERENCE IN STYLES
Under Sarri, Juventus' identity was clear with the Italian's love for the 4-3-3 formation and dominating possession.
Allergi's style of football differs to his compatriot, but he recognised that his team was too defensive and lacked an aggressive attitude.
This team has much fewer points with Allegri than Sarri's did at this stage of the season and this is in part because the latter possessed the quality of Gonzalo Higuain, Douglas Costa, Sami Khedira, Blaise Matuidi and Miralem Pjanic.
Sarri's skill was to be able to have players with great strength and international experience, while Allegri has many millennials such as Luca Pellegrini, Matthijs de Ligt, Dusan Vlahovic and many young players such as Manuel Locatelli, Weston McKennie, Arthur Melo and Denis Zakaria.
Sarri's team had a unique characteristic: attacking spaces with speed, with the defence positioned almost as high as their midfield - squeezing opponents.
With Allegri the situation has changed: the four-man defence plays about two meters in front of the penalty area because his philosophy calls for a compact team with very narrow lines. The risk is to physically destroy the attackers, forced to run for miles before approaching the opposing goalkeeper.
Allegri is an expression of an ancient football that can only win in Italy unlike what was done by Antonio Conte, Carlo Ancelotti, Sarri and Fabio Capello - to whom the latter he resembles a lot.
ALLEGRI THE NUMBERS MAN
Allegri is a lover of numbers and statistics, a fascination he developed as a teenager while going horse racing with his grandfather.
For him the legs of a player, like the legs of a horse, are the real indicator of the state of form of an athlete. In recent times Allegri seems to have lost this bizarre talent and risks being ousted from the top-four running in Serie A due to many managerial errors too. After 26 games, his Juventus side have 47 points - eight points fewer than Pirlo 12 months ago and 16 less than Sarri in 2020.
Allegri is the protagonist of an ancient, and perhaps primitive football, but he has always achieved great results. In the Premier League or in LaLiga he would be less successful. His style is so akin to Capello that his ideology would hardly be appreciated at the likes of Real Madrid or Manchester City - where style is everything.
Juventus have drawn eight times this season in Serie A and with this average of points they risk losing fourth place. Without access to the next Champions League, Juventus will lose around £33.5million - which is essential to repay Vlahovic's fee and to further strengthen the club's finances.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE INJURY CURSE
The great cyclist Marco Pantani after a disastrous fall on the track said: 'Luck does not exist, but misfortune does exist'.
Juve are a rather unfortunate team in Europe because in the decisive moments their top players often pick up injuries or knocks that limit the quality of the team.
In recent knockout defeats by Ajax, Lyon and Porto; Juventus have always had serious injuries. Even against Villarreal they will be without their iconic centre-back pairing Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, while Paulo Dybala will also be missing once more.
CRISTIANO RONALDO WOULD HAVE GUARANTEED POINTS
Cristiano Ronaldo's departure to Manchester United in August has played a telling part in Juventus' downfall.
The iconic No 7 guarantees 20-25 goals a season and Juve haven't replaced that.
Those strikes would have allowed Juventus to obtain the seven points dropped against Empoli, Sassuolo and Torino this season.
DYBALA IS UNUSTAINABLE FOR ALLEGRI
Dybala is Allegri's biggest problem because his absence forces the coach to change form from his preferred 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2 formation.
In his first year at Juventus, Dybala missed 31 days of the season due to muscle overload, while his second campaign was also injury hit twice due to various muscle issues.
In the 2017-2018 season, further muscle injuries saw him miss 42 days. The 2019-20 saw the season disrupted by the Covid pandemic but even then Dybala was still beset by injuries.
In truth, 2020 was the Argentine's darkest year. He was out for 125 days and this heaped pressure on Pirlo from the off. Initially out for 50 days with a thigh injury, he then suffered a MCL knee injury later on.
Over the course of this season, Dybala has accumulated another 65 days on the sidelines.
Since joining Juve, Dybala has missed over 50 matches due to injury - totalling more than 365 days - with many of those encounters decisive for the club.
He ended 2021 injured, lasting only 12 minutes during Juve's 1-1 draw at Venezia in Serie A on December 11.
On Friday he had to be substituted on 53 minutes after suffering another muscular problem. He now needs at 10 days rest to avoid worsening the issue.
For Dybala this is the fourth injury in five months, too many for a top player who asks for a yearly salary of £8.4million.
