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Leeds and Farke under pressure to turn underlying numbers into real results

  /  autty

Back-to-back defeats have left Leeds just three points above the relegation zone, with Saturday's 2-0 loss at Burnley, another newly-promoted club, ringing alarm bells.

Leeds boss Daniel Farke insisted the result didn't reflect the performance of his side.

"We dominated each and every aspect, possession, shots, shots on target, big chances, expected goals, corners, everything," he said in his post-match press conference.

Indeed, Leeds will have left Turf Moor scratching their heads at how they failed to score, having had 19 shots, 42 touches in the opposition box and 69 per cent possession.

"In an away game on Premier League level, you can't have better statistics than we did today," said Farke.

Unfortunately, failing to turn positive performances into points is starting to be a problem for Leeds, who are at risk of becoming the Premier League's 'nearly team'.

They now face a struggling West Ham at Elland Road on Friday - live on Sky Sports - in a game that suddenly feels must-win.

Leeds are expected to dominate against second-bottom West Ham, who have been accused of "sleepwalking" into the Championship, and pressure is likely to ramp up if they don't come out with all three points against another potential relegation rival in front of their own fans.

What do the numbers say?

Opta's Expected table has Leeds seventh, up in the European qualification spots.

In reality, they are down in 15th and looking over their shoulder at the drop zone.

Opta's model reckons they should have won around five points more than they have. With just eight on the board, that is a lot of points to have given up in the early months of the season.

Those underlying numbers, in theory, should make for good reading. Sooner or later, the data suggests, Leeds will start moving up the table. But how long can Farke's side keep up these performance levels if they do not bring results?

Mentally, playing well but losing points can take its toll on. The stats must be infuriating for Farke.

Leeds' defensive numbers show they have an xG against tally of 8.6 - that's the fourth-best record in the Premier League. But they have let in 13 - the fifth-worst total.

Luck hasn't always been with Leeds in this regard. Gabriel Gudmundsson's freak own goal cost them at Fulham and Spurs scored two deflected goals to win at Elland Road in another game Farke's side could argue they deserved all three points from.

"After this game I would be normally disappointed even with a draw, not even to speak about a loss," said Farke at the time.

"We were the better side in all aspects. We had more possession, passes, expected goals, shots, shots on target, big chances created, big chances missed, corners."

Sound familiar? Farke's responses to losses against Spurs and Burnley have been justified but that won't be the case for long if this pattern persists.

Leeds have taken 104 shots, the seventh-most in the division but their measly conversion rate of 6.7 per cent is only better than that of Wolves and Nottingham Forest, who sit in the relegation zone.

Where will the goals come from?

Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, signed as a free agent in the summer, plays a crucial role leading the line in Farke's more direct system, but has scored just once and has missed five big chances. Only Jean-Philippe Mateta and Erling Haaland have missed more in the league - and they have scored the goals to make up for it.

Leeds are creating at least one big chance per 90 fewer than Crystal Palace and Man City in the league so far and cannot afford to keep wasting opportunities at that rate - but Farke continues to keep the faith, with Calvert-Lewin starting the last five games in a row.

Lukas Nmecha and Joel Piroe, Leeds' other strikers, have started one game each but are yet to score a non-penalty goal between them in the league. Clearly, Leeds will need goals to come from other areas of the pitch to support the strikers.

Summer signings Anton Stach and Sean Longstaff have chipped in with long-range strikes from midfield, while centre-back Joe Rodon scored from a set-piece, but it is not sustainable to rely on these goals.

The big worry for Farke will be that Noah Okafor, Leeds' top scorer with two goals in five appearances, is the only winger to have a recorded a goal contribution in the league.

Farke said in the final days of the window that Leeds would suffer if they failed to sign another forward and his warning has come to bear just eight games into the season with injuries to Daniel James, Wilfried Gnonto and Okafor exacerbating the issue.

Jack Harrison and Brenden Aaronson were the only wingers fit enough to start at Burnley - neither have registered a goal involvement in their last 14 Premier League games - and the US international spurned a glorious chance to equalise that could have turned the game.

Farke could have his full accompaniment of forwards back as soon as Friday - but the glaring issue for Leeds is that none of these players have yet proven themselves to be consistent goal contributors at this level.