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Man City lead Bayern in UCL tie but Guardiola has history for overthinking

  /  autty

Even Pep Guardiola and his rather unique tactical brain can't mess this one up. Surely?

Manchester City take a commanding three-goal advantage to Bavaria and for their travelling fans it should be steins, sausages and serene strides to the semi-finals.

But Guardiola and City have such a track record of self-destructing in the Champions League, you can't entirely rule out a jaw-dropping Bayern Munich comeback.

Bayern's coach Thomas Tuchel - who got the better of Guardiola with Chelsea in the 2021 final - was honest in his appraisal of the challenge facing his team.

'Well, we need a miracle. After 0-3 you need to be realistic,' he said. 'It's a huge mountain to climb.

'We need to believe but we don't want to be dreamers. Being dreamers is very close to sleeping. If you constantly look at the top of a mountain you can make it even tougher because of the size of the mountain.'

You sensed this wasn't mind games. City looked imperious in last week's first leg at the Etihad and Bayern are enduring a turbulent season.

By rights, City should coast through to another semi-final date with Real Madrid but you can never entirely write off Bayern in their own stadium.

If Tuchel's side gain an early goal, if the atmosphere gets cranked up, if Bayern put City under sustained pressure, then you never know.

The Champions League has gained a reputation in recent years for precisely the miracle comebacks Tuchel is seeking.

The other way Bayern prevail is if Guardiola has another one of his moments and puts out an unorthodox team selection, or sets City up in a brand new formation.

The previous occasions are high-profile and well-documented.

In 2016-17, Guardiola's first season as City boss, they went all gung-ho against Monaco in the last-16 and were unable to defend a 5-3 first leg lead because of defensive deficiencies.

The following year, the City boss decided to play Aymeric Laporte in an unfamiliar position on the left-side of the defence against Liverpool at Anfield.

Unsurprisingly, Laporte was completely out of his depth and Mohamed Salah, the dangerman he was supposed to be man-marking, scored after just 12 minutes. Liverpool won 3-0 and ultimately 5-1 on aggregate.

In 2019, City were dreaming of the Quadruple as they played Tottenham in the quarter-finals but Guardiola decided to deploy Fabian Delph against the blistering speed of Heung-min Son and dropped Kevin De Bruyne in the first leg.

They looked a shadow of their usual fluent selves and lost 1-0, eventually departing the competition on away goals after a madcap seven-goal thriller at the Etihad.

Arguably the worst one was against Lyon in the 2020 quarter-final. It looked straightforward but Guardiola 'overthought', ditched the familiar 4-3-3 for a three-man defence and left many of his best attackers on the bench.

Although it was obvious the plan had backfired, Guardiola waited until the 56th minute to bring on Riyad Mahrez and Lyon beat them 3-1.

'It's a different year, same stuff,' said an exasperated De Bruyne afterwards.

City did make the final in 2021 and were favourites against Tuchel's Chelsea but Guardiola left everyone open-mouthed by dropping cornerstone midfielders Rodri and Fernandinho - who'd featured in 60 of City's 61 games that season.

Guardiola went all-out in attack with De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Mahrez, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva all starting but confused as to their roles.

Chelsea won 1-0 and City's best chance of claiming that elusive first Champions League crown went begging.

Guardiola has bristled in the past when it's been put to him that unnecessary tactical tweaks have hindered his team.

'I overthink a lot. I love to overthink and create stupid tactics again. Tonight I will create an inspiration and do incredible tactics. We play with 12,' he said sarcastically ahead of last season's tie with Atletico Madrid.

They were on the cusp of another final last season until two Rodrygo goals after the 90th-minute mark forced their semi-final second leg with Real Madrid into extra time.

Having been floored by the two late sucker punches, City conceded a penalty early in extra time and Karim Benzema took Real through. It was a staggering collapse.

Of course it's easy to criticise Guardiola with the benefit of hindsight. No doubt he'd justified all these disastrous tactical changes to himself, believing it was the right course of action to keep the opponent guessing.

But it's the regularity of City's wobbles in the Champions League that is the alarming thing and it's why you cannot completely rule out a Bayern miracle.

City also come into this game off the back of 10 consecutive wins and they haven't lost in two-and-a-half months. They have scored 37 goals in that winning run.

Erling Haaland, perhaps the one single reason why this year could be different in the Champions League for City, is practically unplayable.

Everybody else is playing well, the game plans work, life is good. There's no need to change anything, Pep.

And while Bayern cannot be counted out, they're not as strong as at certain points in the past.

They may be top of the Bundesliga but Borussia Dortmund are breathing down their necks and there's a very real chance their decade-long domestic dominance may be about to end.

Tuchel's team come into this second leg having dropped two points in a 1-1 home draw with Hoffenheim at the weekend.

That was played amid the fall-out from Sadio Mane hitting Leroy Sane and giving him a bruised lip. Mane was fined and suspended for the Hoffenheim game but he could feature against City.

The incident was just the latest of many in a Bayern season that has contained far more drama than is desirable.

By 11pm local time on Wednesday night they'll likely also be out of Europe. But when it comes to City and Guardiola, you just never know for sure.