Manchester United, Chelsea and Leeds have been declared the winners of a frenetic and uniquely expensive summer transfer window, but Liverpool are among the biggest losers, according to data analysts.
United and Chelsea significantly increased their prospects of Champions League qualification, while Liverpool actually reduced theirs by 20 per cent, despite bringing in striker Darwen Nunez from Benfica for £85M and midfielder Fabio Carvalho from Fulham for £5M after his contract expired.
Bournemouth, who have already sacked manager Scott Parker after a 9-0 defeat at Liverpool, managed to increase their chances of relegation by 17 per cent after unconvincing summer business, say the number crunchers.
The Twenty First Group have assessed each Premier League club’s transfer activity to calculate the impact on their final positions in the table and to work out who bagged the biggest bargains.
The group, which advises clubs throughout the European leagues on strategy, including transfers, found that while Manchester United paid well over the odds for players, their new recruits are also likely to have a big impact on their season.
United paid more than twice the market value for their Brazilian star, Antony, who arrived at Old Trafford from Ajax for £85M, which is £44M more than may have been expected, say the analysts. The winger scored on his debut in the 3-1 win over Arsenal.
Meanwhile, Casemiro, who was bought from Real Madrid for £70M and Lisandro Martinez, who came from Ajax for £55M, also featured in a list of 15 deals where clubs paid above the going rate.
Ajax sporting director Gerry Hamstra has said United overpaid for their stars with 'huge sums of money'.
However, Martinez, in particular, has given the Red Devils a boost with his aggressive defending and has been a key part of their four consecutive wins.
And United may well decide it was worth throwing money at their key targets, with their transfer business boosting their prospects of a top four finish in the Premier League, and therefore Champions League qualification, by 12 per cent.
If United do force their way back into the top four they could wipe out any overspend in the space of next season. Champions League qualification is worth around five times more than a Europa League place for English clubs, on average, with additional sponsorship opportunities on top.
In 2020-21, the most recent figures available, Premier League teams in the Champions League averaged income of £89M, compared to £19M from the Europa League.
In that season, United themselves earned £54M after they were eliminated in the group stage of the Champions League, but just £10M for their participation in the Europa League, where they finished as runners up after losing to Villarreal.
It was an extraordinary transfer window with Premier League clubs spending around £2 billion on players.
Chelsea, who topped the spending charts with an outlay of £254M this summer, signing Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Wesley Fofana, Denis Zakaria, Kalidou Koulibaly and Marc Cucurella, have boosted their title hopes by six per cent and top four chances by 13 per cent, say the Twenty First Group.
Leeds United, who brought in seven players for a fee, including midfielder Brenden Aaronson, winger Louis Sinisterra and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams, were the big winners at the bottom of the table, improving their survival chances by 10 per cent after narrowly avoiding relegation by three points and one place on the final day of last season.
Liverpool's prospects appear to have suffered from the loss of attacker Sadio Mane, who went to Bayern Munich, but who has been a key cog in the 'red machine', scoring 23 goals in all competitions, last season.
In addition, Liverpool's midfield has been exposed by injuries to Jordan Henderson, Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Thiago Alcantara and now Fabio Carvalho. The Reds were forced into a deadline day loan dash for Arthur Melo from Juventus to provide cover.
However, while Liverpool's odds of a top-four finish fell 20 per cent, there is still an 80 per cent chance they will make it.
The analysts also assessed the best value deals done.
Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland, who joined Manchester City from Borussia Dortmund for an initial fee of £51M after his release clause was triggered was the bargain of the window, if not in the history of the Premier League. Haaland, who has already scored 10 top flight goals, was snapped up for £150M below his valuation.
However, what City gained on Haaland they arguably lost on Raheem Sterling who moved to Chelsea, and Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko, who went to Arsenal. Collectively, they were sold at £159M below their market rate, according to the analysts.
And Liverpool bagged a bargain themselves, securing Carvalho from Fulham for £19M less than his current value.
‘[Our] player valuation model assesses the transfer value of players based on a range of factors including performance, age, and position,’ explained Omar Chaudhuri, chief intelligence officer at the Twenty First Group.
‘It compares players to similar players who have been sold, and uses these values as a benchmark for the player’s market value.
‘Players will often sell significantly above or below this value due to a range of factors, including contract situations, needs of the buyers and sellers, and specific characteristics of the player that may be more or less valuable in the market at the time.’
It was not just Manchester United, who were willing to break the bank to get their man this summer. The analysts calculate that Chelsea paid £63M more for centre back Wesley Fofana from Leicester City than his market value, which was reduced because he missed last season through injury.
Kalvin Phillips went from Leeds to Manchester City for £45M, but that was estimated to be over the odds following the player’s injury problems and Brighton were on the good end of the deal to sell Cucurella to Chelsea for £62M, extracting £29M more than the market demanded.
Everton also had to go large to bring in Amadou Onana from Lille in French Ligue 1. His transfer fee for £34M is calculated to be £24M above the market rate.