Jones Knows thinks James Maddison will spark Leicester City into life in their Saturday Night Football clash at fellow strugglers Southampton...
Southampton vs Leicester, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
James Maddison being touch-and-go for matches makes my life as a person tasked with making predictions and profitable betting calls very tough. His influence on whether Leicester perform or not is huge, to the extent he's probably the most important individual player to a team in the entire league.
Leicester have taken just one point from a possible 18 without Maddison since the World Cup and with him they have averaged almost two goals per game this season. The vibes are that he'll be available for this one, so Leicester to edge it from a match prediction perspective it is.
If he does play, I do like the chances of him making two or more fouls in the game at 3/1 with Sky Bet as he'll be tasked with pressing the very slippery Romeo Lavia. The youngster has been the shining light for Saints this season and his ability to keep the ball in tight situations whilst drawing fouls is going to take him to the very highest echelons of the game.
He has been fouled 24 times in his last six appearances with central players like Alex Hunt (2), Tyler Adams (3), Enzo Fernandez (2), Joao Felix (5), Matheus Cunha (4), Christian Norgaard (2) and Bruno Guimaraes (5) all racking up multiple fouls against the Saints with Lavia at the heart. In what could be a scrappy encounter, Maddison, who averages 1.19 fouls per game and has made two or more fouls in seven of his 16 Premier League starts this season, looks overpriced at 3/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Everton's offside numbers haven't rocketed as expected under Sean Dyche. From the start of the 2018/19 season to his final day in the job in April 2022, Dyche's Burnley were caught offside more times than any other Premier League team. That total of 350 was 65 more than any other club as their direct style into the forward line does increase the possibilities of players straying.
So, it's been surprising that they've only averaged 1.6 per game under Dyche so far which is in keeping with what the market expects. But I'm a stickler for believing in a potential angle - to my detriment mostly - so I've been tempted back in by Everton's offsides prices for this game, hoping that the six-pointer style game will see Everton play on the front-foot and test the Forest offside line.
The Evens available with Sky Bet for Everton to be caught offside two or more times makes sense but the three or more (11/4) and four or more (13/2) are worth watching in the hope that the offside Dyche-ball frenzy sparks into life. Amadou Onana, who is playing higher under Dyche, has been responsible for the last two Everton offsides and can be backed here at 11/4 to stray once again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
For a team that have lost just once in their last 35 home games in the Premier League, being able to get 8/11 with Sky Bet on Liverpool in the draw no-bet market makes sense for those that like playing short. Jurgen Klopp's men have started with 11 different defensive line-ups this season but finally all four of their first choice are fit and playing with good rhythm. Ibrahim Konate and Virgil van Dijk have completed 90 minutes as a pair just three times this season with Liverpool beating Napoli, Tottenham and Wolves.
This is the ideal base that Jurgen Klopp wants to build from as Konate and Van Dijk are both aggressive defenders that are happy to play a high line which allows Liverpool to squeeze the game.
It's been an incredibly draining schedule for Manchester United, playing a match almost every three days since the return from the World Cup. I'd be surprised if they'll be able to match Liverpool's intensity at key moments in the game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brentford vs Fulham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Despite Fulham's magnificent set of results, I'm still not convinced they defend the heart of the pitch with much conviction or are creating enough high-quality chances to be defined as a top-eight team.
Being good at scoring from range and being ruthlessly clinical from low-quality chances is a part of football but it's an unsuitable long-term tactic of trying to win matches. To have won two and drawn the other in their last three games despite only creating 0.34 (vs Brighton), 0.44 (vs Wolves) and 0.22 (vs Leeds) worth of expected goals is quite extraordinary. Football is a fine-margin sport where the underlying numbers do eventually bore out into results over a long period so a regression to more inconsistent set of results is coming for Fulham if they keep posting these types of numbers. Brentford look a fair bet to me at 19/20 with Sky Bet.
This is a team unbeaten in eight home Premier League games, winning three of their last four, conceding just three goals in their last seven games.
And I'm still convinced Fulham are vulnerable through the centre of their defence when a top-class centre-forward rocks up. Central strikers like Harry Kane, Rodrigo, Dominic Solanke, Gianluca Scamacca, Michail Antonio, Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson and Toney himself all have scored this season against Marco Silva's men.
So taking Ivan Toney, who has seven in his last nine, to score in a Brentford win rates as one of the best wagers of the weekend at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
