Spurs to stumble? Villa to surge clear in race for Champions League? Our tipster Jones Knows unleashes his Premier League insight and betting analysis.
Brentford vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The Premier League goal extravaganza shows no signs of slowing down.
Games are still producing an average total goal figure we've never seen before - it's now at 3.23 goals per game. I'd expect this game to threaten that line - as do the markets with just 8/11 with Sky Bet on offer for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals to land, something which has happened in 52.3 per cent of Premier League games this season. It also would have copped in 11 of Brentford's last 13 Premier League home matches, whilst the Bees have failed to score in just one of their last 26 league home games.
They have however conceded two or more goals in eight of their last 10 Premier League games and it was clear to see at West Ham that Ethan Pinnock's aerial defensive dominance was missed. Ben Mee being out for the season is further damaging news. Chelsea can get in on the act in a goal-heavy game where a high scoring draw is certainly a runner with 2-2 (10/1) and 3-3 (28/1) punts worth consideration.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Everton vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
I think this game sets up really nicely for Everton when assessing the key strengths and weaknesses of each team, so I wouldn't put anyone off the Evens with Sky Bet on a home win. Simply put, Everton are one of the best teams in the Premier League at creating chances from aerial balls into the box and surprisingly for a David Moyes team West Ham are one of the weakest at defending such scenarios.
West Ham have conceded the second most headed shots this season (71) and have conceded the most open play crosses (94) - 11 more than any other team. They are now facing the team with the second-most headed shots and second-most successful crosses in the Premier League. It's the Sean Dyche way.
This looks a great game to back Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score a header at 5/1 with Sky Bet.
A headed goal must be coming for Calvert-Lewin who has failed to score with his last 35 headed shots, which have produced an expected goals figure of 4.49. This includes 11 headed shots across his last five games - and he was unfortunate his headed effort against Spurs a few weeks back actually went down as a Jack Harrison goal.
One is due. He can score one in a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Fulham vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
I'm worried for Brighton in this one.
The last eight Premier League games Brighton have played after a cup fixture this season, they've failed to win any of them as their squad has struggled to cope with the demands of playing Roberto De Zerbi's high-octane football more than once a week. Plus, it's a squad that has been decimated by injuries - the latest being Kaoru Mitoma, who is borderline irreplaceable on his best form.
Marco Silva is one of the shrewdest around for stopping an opposition - as seen when bamboozling Erik ten Hag for the first 30 minutes at Old Trafford last weekend in a fantastic team performance.
And it looks like Silva has found his new Aleksandar Mitrovic based on the last few performances of Rodrigo Muniz, who has been really impressive leading the line. He's scored four in his last four and his non-penalty expected goals return per game of 0.55 is up there with the likes of Dominic Solanke and Darwin Nunez, albeit over a smaller sample size. The early signs are hugely positive for him becoming an elite Premier League striker in time.
It's 100/30 with Sky Bet for Muniz to score in a Fulham win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Newcastle vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Wolves are smart and streetwise enough on the road to extend Newcastle's home run without a win to five games. Considering they've won at both Tottenham and Chelsea recently, the 10/11 with Sky Bet on Wolves avoiding defeat does look on the generous side.
Down the flanks on the counter is where the visitors are likely to cause damage. Pedro Neto and Nelson Semedo are dangerous customers but also a pair that draw a high volume of fouls down that right flank, meaning the opposition left back is always worth a look in the fouls committed market. Tino Livramento started there against Arsenal, finally ousting Dan Burn after some poor recent showings.
If he gets the nod again then the Evens with Sky Bet on him committing at least one foul looks overpriced. Neto and Semedo have been responsible for winning 18 fouls in their last seven starts playing together, with the opposition full-back making at least one foul in six of those seven and the overall foul count standing at nine fouls made by that particular player.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Seriously, how good is Virgil van Dijk?
There's been talk of the midfield revamp being the key to Liverpool's improvement this season but I think it's all about Van Dijk being back to his imperious best. He can take on any striker for pace or power one-on-one - and win that battle. As seen through the fact he's only been dribbled past once in 24 Premier League games this season, the best record of any outfield player in the league.
Since the start of the 18/19 season, Liverpool's win percentage with him starting is 73 per cent and just 51 per cent without him. That's from a sample size of 216 games. And they've lost just one game in the Premier League at Anfield from 86 matches with him in the starting XI. Silly numbers.
And punters have started to realise he's a real runner for this year's PFA Player of the Year - an award he won in 2019.
If Liverpool are to win the league, which currently stands at about 30 per cent probability, then Van Dijk at this stage is their standout player as the forward line are sharing the goals out this season. The 50/1 on his chances of landing the award are long gone but Sky Bet are still 12/1 in the market. I'd argue if you fancy Liverpool to win the Premier League at 23/10, then you should back Van Dijk at 12/1 too. He can keep another clean sheet this weekend in what should be a comfortable afternoon for the title chasers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Goals look the obvious angle of attack based on Tottenham's games averaging a cool 3.60 goals per game this season - only Newcastle's games have seen more. Both teams have scored in 15 of their last 16 Premier League games with the only clean sheet coming in Spurs' 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest. That makes the 10/11 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and the game producing over 2.5 goals look a cracking angle to exploit - it has landed in 94 per cent of their last 16 games.
Crystal Palace can be relied upon in the scoring department. I suspect we're seeing a new manager bounce with Oliver Glasner in charge with fresh ideas and philosophises likely to inspire after almost a year of Roy Hodgson's monotonous style. Having Eberechi Eze available, back from a hamstring injury, is another huge boost when you consider Palace's win percentage rockets from 9.5 per cent to 37 per cent with him in the starting XI. His influence can help Palace get on the scoresheet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Luton vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This match sets up perfectly for Leon Bailey.
Luton's man-for-man style is seriously good to watch but it leaves them exposed against dangerous players that relish one-on-ones - that's Bailey in a nutshell.
He's gone slightly under the radar this season with Ollie Watkins grabbing most of the plaudits but Bailey is actually working at a higher per 90 goal contribution ratio than Watkins at 1.07, so he's either scoring or assisting more than once a game. It works out at 15 goals or assists in 13 starts.
Those numbers put him among the elite but he's not being priced up like it, especially against a team like Luton who will offer him so much space. What's more, Amari'i Bell, one of their standout defenders and the one who would ordinarily be tasked with stopping Bailey, is a major doubt after hobbling off against Man City.
Bailey's price of 5/6 with Sky Bet to score or assist looks a winner in waiting. I'll be backing that, along with the 4/1 on offer for Bailey to assist a Watkins goal or Watkins to assist a Bailey goal.
That goal-assist combo has clicked six times in just 1,261 minutes on the pitch together this season - that means a goal every 210 minutes - and I think the relationship is only set to blossom further. It's not quite Kevin De Bruyne-Erling Haaland levels of wavelength but it's an electric partnership nonetheless.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BETS: Leon Bailey to score or assist (5/6 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!) & either Bailey to assist an Ollie Watkins goal or Watkins to assist a Bailey goal (4/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Bournemouth, Sunday 1pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It's not been a season where under-goals backers have flourished but this looks a potential money-maker at the prices with 11/10 with Sky Bet on offer for under 2.5 goals.
Burnley have scored just 25 goals this season with 20 per cent of those coming in one match when beating Sheffield United. Their expected goals total is the worst in the league at 23.63, they've created the fewest biggest chances and have failed to score in 10 of their 26 matches.
And now they have to face one of the best defensive units in the Premier League. Yes, Bournemouth are winless in seven league games, but over the last 14 the data is telling me they are the fifth-best team in the division.
In those last 14 games, they are working at a per 90 non-penalty expected goals-against ratio of just 1.07, a defensive process only bettered by City and Arsenal.
But obviously something is holding them back and it's in attack. The winless run is taking its toll as they are lacking in confidence and becoming very wasteful. And for this game they could be without Dominic Solanke, who is undergoing assessment on a knee issue, which only adds to their issues in forward areas as he's scored 46 per cent of their goals this season. He didn't play in midweek against Leicester and Bournemouth were woeful with their finishing, recording 15 shots off target across the 120 minutes.
They now haven't scored a goal from their last 40 shots across two games and have scored just six goals in their last seven games. They're not playing with enough confidence to blow a team away, even one as bad as Burnley, and I'm sure Andoni Iraola will just want to break this winless run with a no-thrills away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 3.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Is this a damage limitation job for Manchester United? Get out of there without a walloping? How the mighty have fallen. With a one-sided match on the cards, we must find a way to back Manchester City in some form. It comes in the corner markets, where yet again we can attack the opposition corner count against United.
United's eight-game Premier League average of corners conceded now stands at 7.5 per 90 minutes after Fulham won nine at Old Trafford. I hope some of you took the advice and backed the over 6.5 line at 3/1.
That corner-conceded average rises to a completely bonkers 10.8 corners conceded in the last six games against the top five in the Premier League, where they shipped 10 away at Villa, 13 at home to Spurs, six at home to Villa, 12 away at Liverpool, 12 vs Man City and 12 at Arsenal.
I think the Man City total corners line is a play despite it being higher than ideal. Sky Bet have City to win eight or more corners at 5/6, which is fine. But we can be greedy. I wouldn't put people off the bigger lines too with 12 or more at 11/2 - it's a bet that would've landed in four of those six aforementioned games against the top five.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Sheffield United vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
No team in English league history (top four divisions) has lost three successive home games by five or more goals.
Sheffield United could become the first.
Arsenal are as short as 14/1 with Sky Bet to win 5-0 and it's worth pointing out the Gunners have scored two or more goals in each of last seven halves of Premier League games, becoming the first team to do so in Premier League history.
If this game does venture down easy street for Arsenal then a low card count is likely to follow.
The Gunners have been shown the fewest cards of any team this season (39) with their total match card count per match against teams in the bottom six coming out at just two cards. They've had three games across all competitions end up with no cards being shown and the 9/1 with Sky Bet on offer may give punters a great run in what is likely to be a heavily one-sided encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-5
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