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Premier League predictions: Back Everton to pour more misery onto Jose Mourinho

  /  autty

Jones Knows pens his predictions and betting insights as he sees more misery for Jose Mourinho at Everton and tips Seamus Coleman for an assist at 11/1.

Everton vs Tottenham, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Jose Mourinho teams are traditionally built around a rock-solid foundation. Not this Spurs team, though.

Mourinho doesn't know his best defensive pairing, switching between Toby Alderweireld, Davinson Sanchez, Joe Rodon and Eric Dier at a scattergun rate. Since December 12, only six teams have conceded more goals than Spurs' total of 26 goals, with just five clean sheets in their last 20 Premier League matches. No wonder a place in the top four is slipping through their fingers.

This lack of cohesion at the heart of the Spurs defence is making them easy to score against and it's why I'm happy to side with the home team. Everton have enough quality in forward areas to punish them.

The source of a goal could materialise courtesy of some Seamus Coleman magic down the right flank. Carlo Ancelotti has given him more licence to get forward in a wing-back role in the past two fixtures and Coleman has created six chances for his teammates during that period. One of those chances was taken - a James Rodriguez strike vs Crystal Palace - and when you add everything up, the 11/1 with Sky Bet for him to register another assist against the shaky Spurs backline is worth an interest.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Seamus Coleman to register an assist (11/1 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle vs West Ham, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Regular readers won't be surprised to see I'm well against West Ham here at Evens. It's news that will be greeted with great celebration in east London as the Hammers have made making me look stupid an art form this season.

A haul of nine points from their last three games - all 3-2 victories having raced into a 3-0 lead - has catapulted David Moyes' side right into the top-four mix. They are 7/4 with Sky Bet to cap a remarkable season by qualifying for the Champions League and look home and hosed for a top-six finish at 2/9.

However, not for the first time this season, I'm deeming their recent run of results unsustainable on the basis of their performances. The nine goals scored in their last three games have been amassed from an expected goal figure of just 4.83, much to the individual brilliance of Messi, I mean, Jesse, Lingard.

Unsurprisingly, their shot conversion rate of 32 per cent over the past three fixtures is the highest amassed by any team.

West Ham are scoring goals at key moments in matches despite not creating clear-cut chances. Fine margins can't keep falling in their favour and at the prices I'm happy to row in with Newcastle, who should have Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin fit to play from the start - an upgrade that takes them from relegation fodder to a dangerous mid-table outfit. At 13/5 with Sky Bet, Newcastle should be backed to do the double over the Hammers having won 2-0 in the reverse fixture on the opening day.

Those that aren't quite brave enough to take on such an in-form team in West Ham should perhaps play a bit safer with the 6/4 on offer for Newcastle to have 14 or more shots.

With Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and Wilson all on the pitch, Newcastle are averaging a whopping 14.9 shots at goal per 90 minutes - a huge increase on their overall average which is 10.9 per 90 minutes since Bruce took the job.

And despite winning four of their last five matches, West Ham have actually faced the most shots on their goal of any Premier League team in that period (83), averaging out at a whopping 16.6 per 90 minutes. They can be got at.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to have 14 or more shots (6/4 with Sky Bet)

Wolves vs Sheffield United, Saturday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports

What more could you want from a Saturday night, eh?

At least we might get to witness a confident Adama Traore playing at full throttle.

We've waited long enough but there have been signs that the electric Spaniard is rediscovering the form of last season. After 1,956 minutes without a Premier League goal or an assist, Traore now has one of each in his last two games. Both contributions - his 70-yard run before setting up Leander Dendoncker against West Ham, and the powerful finish at Fulham - showcased him at his very best. With Pedro Neto unavailable due to injury, Traore is now Wolves' most likely route to goal in this game against the sorry Blades. The chief goal threat shouldn't be 15/2 with Sky Bet to score the first goal. It must be backed.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0

BETTING ANGLE: Adama Traore to score first (15/2 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Fulham, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports

It's unlikely the "race for ninth" is going to get many of the Arsenal players fully revved up for this encounter but they might not need to be at full pelt to swat aside flaky Fulham.

The west Londoners are likely to get relegated for many reasons, but the one that stands out to me is their woeful conversion rate in terms of shots to goals. A season return of 6.38 is the lowest of any team in the Premier League.

Scott Parker has a team that plays mature football to get to within shooting distance in matches, as shown by their shots haul of 376 this season - the ninth highest in the Premier League. They just can't consistently take their chances.

More of the same is likely to be served up here as only a win will do in their quest to avoid the drop. Fulham have averaged 12.6 shots per 90 minutes in their last eight fixtures and when you throw in the must-win factor into the equation, the 13/2 with Sky Bet looks very generous for them to fire 15 or more shots during the 90 minutes. It'll give you a great run.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1

BETTING ANGLE: Fulham to have 15 or more shots (13/2 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Burnley, Sunday 4.00pm, live on Sky Sports

My 25/1 on Manchester United to win the Premier League has never really got me too excited this season but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have certainly shown further evidence that a serious title challenge is within their capabilities over the next few years. Their quality should shine through in this fixture, eventually.

However, if Premier League football matches lasted just 45 minutes, Manchester United would be meandering in mid-table this season. They are notorious for their slow starts in matches, to the extent that they've conceded the first goal in 41 per cent of their league fixtures this season. A huge figure for a team odds-on to finish as runners-up.

I'm happy to follow that sleepy start theory in for this encounter with Burnley, who are creating much more opportunities in the final third than they were earlier in the campaign, helped by the impressive form of Chris Wood and Matej Vydra.

Since losing 5-0 to Manchester City in February, Burnley are averaging 12.6 shots per 90 minutes and 1.2 goals per game. This is a big upsurge from an average of 8.3 shots and 0.6 goals per game in the first 21 fixtures of the season. The markets still seem to underrate them in terms of their attacking output, so they look a fair shout to find the net at Old Trafford.

And, as each of Burnley's last seven Premier League goals have come in the first half of games, added to United's poor first-half record in games, the 3/1 with Sky Bet for Burnley to score in the opening 45 minutes rates as a super punting angle.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to score the first goal (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Leeds vs Liverpool, Monday 8.00pm, live on Sky Sports

Liverpool haven't scored a goal before the 45th minute of a Premier League game since December 27. That is quite frankly staggering.

Two goals have come in the 45+4 and 45+2 minutes respectively but still, just two first-half goals in 16 Premier League matches is a very strange set of numbers to analyse. During that spell, they have created chances that should have equated to 10.37 goals using the expected goal model, registering 106 attempts on goal.

Such strange anomalies eventually regress back to a more normal figure and that may start here as Liverpool are facing up against a team that have conceded the most first-half goals in the Premier League this season (31). The floodgates may open for Liverpool early on, who have won each of their last three Premier League games, doing so whilst creating plenty of chances for their attacking players.

Don't be fooled by Leeds. They aren't all of a sudden going to be parking buses and defending manfully like they did at Manchester City last weekend. Marcelo Bielsa will be demanding high-pressing and attack-minded football which should make this a fantastic watch. Back Liverpool to breach their defence twice in the opening 45 minutes at a juicy 3/1 with Sky Bet.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-3

BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool to score two or more goals in the first half (3/1 with Sky Bet)