Kylian Mbappé’s hat-trick against Valladolid moved Carlo Ancelotti’s team onto 49 points. History suggests that’s an important mark after 21 games.
After Kylian Mbappé‘s hat-trick downed Valladolid, Real Madrid have a 93% chance of winning LaLiga this season. At least, that’s what the historical data suggests.
Why Real Madrid have all but clinched the LaLiga title
It’s not a bold claim, but a statistical one based on previous campaigns. In 14 out of the 15 seasons in which they had collected 49 points from 21 games, Madrid went on to win the title.
The only exception was the 2014/15 season, when Barcelona clinched the title thanks to a spectacular finish, edging out their Clásico rivals by just two points. That is the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record. With 49 points now in the bag, and a lead at the top (four points over Atlético Madrid, 10 over Barça, who have a game in hand), another victory for Carlo Ancelotti’s team looks inevitable.
To put things in perspective: the Spanish league is typically won with 84 points, based on the average of the last 10 seasons. In fact, the trend is downward: between 2014 and 2017, it took over 90 points to win the title, but in two of the last three seasons, even 80 points were enough. On average, 84 points are needed to be crowned champion. Madrid are on course to smash through that barrier.
Real Madrid’s projected points total in LaLiga
But if they maintain this pace, they’re on track for nearly 90 points and a 37th league title.
The cautionary tale of 2014/15
The only time Madrid didn’t lift the trophy having amassed 49 points from 21 games came in 2014/15, which was an especially high-scoring league.
In other words, eventual winners Barcelona were also performing exceptionally well, barely stumbling. Excluding the final matchday, where nothing was at stake, the Catalans won 12 of the last 13 matches. Madrid almost did enough (92 points), but their eternal rivals did just that little bit better (94). That season was more about Barcelona’s brilliance than Madrid’s shortcomings.
How far ahead of Barcelona could Real Madrid finish?
Ancelotti has urged his players not to get carried away (“there is too long left to think it’s over”), but in the locker room, the players are finally starting to feel like the best team in the league. The most in-form, the most talented, and the most consistent, which should almost certainly lead to a second successive LaLiga title.
Original article written by Sergio López, translated with the assistance of AI and edited by Roddy Cons.
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