Cristiano Ronaldo will have a dramatic impact on Manchester United’s chances of landing a Premier League title this season, according to leading football analysts, who have crunched the numbers on his sensational return.
The five-time Ballon d'Or winner’s reunion with United will not only boost their prospects of a league title from seven percent to 12%, but significantly increase the likelihood of a Champions League triumph, too.
The game’s statisticians routinely compile data on players in order to predict their likely impact on new teams – and clubs use the information to inform their recruitment decisions.
The Twenty First Group, which advises leading sides across Europe on all aspects of their strategic development, has run the numbers on Ronaldo’s reunion with United, after he signed from Juventus for a fee of £19.8 million, with add-ons.
And the analysts have good news for Red Devils’ fans. They have concluded that the Portuguese will have a significant impact at the Theatre of Dreams bringing the prospect of serious silverware much closer.
‘Our models estimate that Ronaldo's arrival at Manchester United increases their chances of winning the league by five percentage points, from 7 percent to 12 percent,' said Omar Chaudhuri, chief intelligence officer at the Twenty First Group.
‘His arrival has also boosted their Champions League chances, from 5 percent to 8 percent
‘While these may seem like small increases, they are big in relative terms - the odds of United lifting at least one of these two major trophies has increased from 12 percent to 19 percent, or a roughly 1-in-8 chance to a roughly 1-in-5 chance
‘Our models assess the quality of players in a squad and simulate what could happen when one player is replaced by another. These models help clubs assess risk and value in the transfer market
United last claimed the league title in 2013 and the Champions League has eluded them since 2008.
But the acquisition of Ronaldo has elevated United to the same level as Liverpool, according to the Twenty First Group, and only slightly behind Chelsea.
Frustratingly for the red half Manchester, Man City are still considered the team to beat in both the Premier League and the Champions League, even though they lost out on Ronaldo’s signature.
The Twenty First Group analysis is based on comparisons among thousands of European players. The analysts look at every aspect of a player’s contribution to their team and what impact they make on the outcome of matches.
Combining vast amounts of data allows scientists to model a player’s likely impact if they were to move teams.
The Twenty First Group models suggest Lionel Messi is a better, more impactful player than Ronaldo, but the Argentinian is expected to have less impact in Paris, than the Portuguese will have in Manchester.
Messi has joined a club with a star cast, whereas Ronaldo is combining with younger players who still have to prove themselves.
The analysts’ conclusions resonate with the assessment of United legend, Gary Neville.
‘It strengthens Manchester United enormously,' Neville told Sky Sports News.
'The big question every Manchester United fan, probably every fan in the Premier League, will be asking will be: is it enough for them to challenge for the title and win the title?
'I don't quite feel it is. I still feel there are a couple of teams that are better. The Premier League I think is the strongest it's been since the mid-2000s.
Neville points out that United, strengthened also by the summer signings of centre back Raphael Varane and winger Jadon Sancho, are yet to taste success and still need to 'learn' how to win.
Ronaldo's goals will be a factor, too. In his first spell at Old Trafford he scored 84 times in 196 appearances. And while his game may have changed as he has aged, the striker still knows where the goal is. He scored 101 goals in just over three seasons for Juventus prior to his latest move.
'(United have) a lot of talented young players but they haven't won yet, this team haven't won, they don't know how to win and they've got to learn that and he knows how to win - and hopefully for Manchester United he can bring that to the dressing room,' said Neville.
The players are relishing the prospect of linking up with Ronaldo after the international break, during which the Portugal international is raising expectations even higher, netting twice in the dying minutes yesterday to secure a 2-1 win over the Republic of Ireland and breaking the all-time international scoring record - with 111 international goals.
The Reds centre-back Harry Maguire is already super-excited, hailing Ronaldo as the ‘greatest player to play the game’.
'It's amazing to have him at the club and I'm sure he's going to have a huge impact on and off the field, and many players can look and learn and improve, and then, obviously, it's going to improve our team as well with his goalscoring record,’ said Maguire.
And the fans still ready to believe that CR7 can make the difference.
‘At 36, Ronaldo's best years are behind him, even if he will still have his eye on a sixth Ballon d'Or before he retires, but with 36 goals in all competitions last season, there's clearly life in the old dog yet,’ United fan and writer Scott Paterson, of the Republik of Mancunia website, told Sportsmail this week.
‘He was the top scorer in Serie A, with five more goals in less playing time than Chelsea's £98m signing Romelu Lukaku, and his mentality will see him do all he can to shine in the Premier League once more.
Having provided so much excitement and glory at the beginning of his career at Old Trafford, now he gets to play a role of leading the line but also inspiring and motivating the players around him.
And Paterson added: ‘Viva Ronaldo! He's back! And United supporters will be hoping he can bring about a return of those glory days with him.’