To stand any chance of defending the Carabao Cup, Newcastle must do two things they have never achieved at the Etihad Stadium under Eddie Howe - score a goal and win a game.
The scale of their task gets harder still when set against history. No Newcastle manager has won there in more than a decade and it will need a performance of a lifetime to reverse this tie, the sort they produced in winning last season's final against Liverpool.
That feels unlikely, especially given the ruthless manner in which City won here. Pep Guardiola's side had the game's best player in Jeremy Doku and a goalscorer in Antoine Semenyo who has been on City's books barely a week. In fact, Howe was surprised - not to mention miffed - when he learnt that Semenyo would not be cup-tied, owing to an EFL rule change.
It was, then, grimly predictable for the home boss when it was Semenyo who scored the opening goal early in the second half. That twist had felt scripted and there was another sting in the tale when Ryan Cherki swept home in stoppage-time.
There is, too, Guardiola's own subplot. If he is to leave at the end of the season, he will not want to do so empty-handed. This may rank as the least coveted of the four trophies still available to City, but it is also the most immediate - the one that can restore a sense of inevitability and offer a tangible reminder of what Guardiola's team have been.
For a manager who has built his legacy on relentless winning, the reflection he sees in silverware offers reassurance. Lift this at Wembley in March and the belief - and likelihood - of hoisting more in May only grows.
For Newcastle, the need for a positive result here was laid bare by the negativity of that recent return at the Etihad, where the second leg takes place in three weeks. Under Howe, it is played five, lost five, at a cumulative score of 14-0. There had been a feeling that, if Newcastle are to retain the cup, this would be the defining night, just as much as a potential final.
Last season, at this very juncture, a 2-0 win at Arsenal was the moment they started to believe on Tyneside, when tin foil became a sage investment. There was the odd shiny cut-out here and, before kick-off, a giant shiny of the Wembley Arch in the Leazes End. 'Gannin alang Wembley Way' read the memory, and the muscle memory of how they got there soon kicked in for those on the pitch.
Howe started picking his team for this game at the weekend, when resting Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton in the FA Cup. The Brazilian midfielders are his street fighters for the big bouts.
Inside five minutes, Joelinton snapped through a challenge on halfway that allowed Anthony Gordon to free Jacob Murphy down the right. He crossed for Yoane Wissa, unattended at the far post, but the striker never looked convincing - a by-product of an extended knee lay-off - and he swiped carelessly over the bar.
Come the end, there was a suggestion that this was a game too far for Newcastle, running on empty. That is not true. Had Wissa scored that chance, or another after half-time, no black-and-white tank would have been in the red.
After Wissa's early miss, City reversed the direction of play. Howe had bristled at Semenyo's involvement, despite him already featuring for Bournemouth in the competition. But it was Doku on the opposite flank who was the greater irritant. As City took control, the Belgian took the joypad. Time after time he wriggled and weaved through defenders but he, and City, could not convert on their territory.
Come half-time, neither side had troubled the goalkeeper. For all the atmosphere was white hot at the start, the football that followed was white noise. Except, that was, when Howe turned the air blue, so annoyed was he when Wissa failed to press Bernardo Silva, skipping wilfully through his own penalty area. 'F***ing hell' he screamed, twice.
Howe must have felt like doing the same when, five minutes into the second half, Newcastle twice came within inches of taking the lead. First, Wissa did what he should have done an hour earlier and found the target. Reaching to connect with Gordon's high cross, he did superbly to loop back on goal, only for James Trafford to claw clear. But City could not kill the attack and Guimaraes thought he had breathed life into Newcastle's cup defence when taking aim from 20 yards. His strike beat Trafford but not the post.
Belatedly, Newcastle were on top and throwing punches. By the 53rd minute, they were on the canvas. Doku drove past Harvey Barnes and delivered a wicked ball that was diverted by Silva to the feet of Semenyo, stealing a yard on Gordon to turn it at the far post.
Howe was less annoyed by the identity of the scorer and more so by being down to 10 men, with Jacob Ramsey waiting to return after treatment for a head injury - inflicted by Doku's elbow.
Semenyo thought he had another on 63 minutes when hooking in from a corner. A ridiculous wait of five minutes followed before it was determined that Erling Haaland was offside. That was the Norwegian's first meaningful involvement of the evening.
Haaland could be just as anonymous in the second leg and the chances are City will still make Wembley, for it feels as if the hard work has already been done. Guardiola's animated celebration when Cherki turned in from six yards in the 98th minute told you that much.