Tottenham have 11 games of the Premier League season to go as Antonio Conte looks to guide his team to another Champions League finish ahead of Newcastle and Liverpool
That is because Tottenham are in Premier League action whereas the Red Devils will be taking on Fulham in their FA Cup quarter-final clash at Old Trafford. Heading into what remains of the season in third and on 51 points would be a major boost for Antonio Conte and his players, although Manchester United would still have two games in hand over them.
So how many points do Tottenham need to tot up in their final 11 fixtures of the 2022/23 campaign to achieve a Champions League finish for the second year in succession?
Well, FiveThirtyEight have run the numbers and Tottenham have a 34% probability of qualifying for the Champions League. That is actually the same as Newcastle United, with both teams predicted to finish the season on 65 points but the Magpies eight ahead on goal difference.
If 65 is to be the magic number this season, Tottenham require a further 17 points from their final 11 games and also a swing in terms of goal difference as Newcastle are on +19 at present and seven ahead of the Lilywhites. Five wins and two draws from their final 11 games would see them achieve their target, as would six wins if it is going to be that tight in terms of goal difference in the fight for fourth.
Sixty-five points would in fact be the lowest total needed to secure a top-four berth since Everton finished fourth on 61 points in the 2004/05 campaign, with the lowest coming 12 months earlier as their Merseyside rivals Liverpool secured Champions League football on 60 points. Over the past decade, teams have had to achieve more than 70 points in seven of the past ten seasons when it comes to finishing fourth.
If last season and the past decade is any indicator with regards to the points total needed for Champions League qualification then Tottenham will need to add a couple more wins to the 65 point total FiveThirtyEight have predicted. It's certainly achievable but consistency is once again going to be the key when it comes to Tottenham's aspirations.