Manchester United's hopes of reaching the Champions League knockout stage is hanging by a thread ahead of their must-win clash with Bayern Munich tonight.
The Red Devils need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and hope that Copenhagen and Galatasaray play out a draw in the other game in the group to advance to the next stage.
Erik ten Hag's side's hopes were severely dented after they threw away the lead twice in a 3-3 draw with Galatasaray - with their last-16 destiny now out of their hands.
This has been reflected in Opta's latest calculations, with their supercomputer giving United a 9.4 per cent chance of making the next phase.
Newcastle meanwhile face AC Milan on Wednesday, and while they have been given a higher chance (26.1 per cent) to finish second in their group over Paris Saint-Germain (18.4 per cent) - the French giants and Borussia Dortmund are still expected to finish ahead of the Magpies.
Borussia Dortmund and PSG have been given a 51.2 and 48.8 per cent chance respectively of topping Group F - while Newcastle can finish no higher than second.
Eddie Howe's side will need Dortmund to beat PSG in Germany, and also beat AC Milan at St James' Park.
A third place finish in their respective groups would mean that Manchester United and Newcastle drop to the Europa League - alongside the likes of Liverpool, Brighton and West Ham.
Man United have been given a 39 per cent chance of finishing third - higher than that of Galatasaray and Copenhagen.
However, they have also been given the highest expectation of finishing bottom of their group at 51.6 per cent - which would see them crash out of Europe altogether.
Newcastle have a 49.2 per cent chance of finishing third in their group, though a defeat to AC Milan would see them finish fourth - which has been given a chance of 26.1 per cent.
Their chances would have been significantly better if it wasn't for a controversial penalty which went against them deep into stoppage time during a 1-1 draw with PSG last time out.
There are two other groups where a place in the last-16 is yet to be finalised.
Porto are heavy favourites to qualify with Barcelona from Group H, though a victory for Shakhtar Donetsk would send the Ukrainians through instead.
Opta's supercomputer doesn't give Shakhtar much hope however, with Porto given an 82.7 per cent chance of advancing.
Braga have a slim chance of reaching the last-16 ahead of reigning Serie A champions Napoli.
The Portuguese side would need to pick up a shock victory tonight and better the Italian club's 2-1 victory over Braga from earlier in the group stage - as they would finish level on points.
Man City and Arsenal have already reached the last-16, and have secured top-spot in their respective groups.