For the fourth time in three and a half years, Tottenham Hotspur are looking for a manager.
Cristian Stellini and Ryan Mason are holding the fort between now and the end of the season, but the importance of Spurs recruiting the right person to do the job long-term is growing with every passing week.
Whoever arrives in their corner of north London is going to have the unenviable task of overhauling a set of players that is in serious need of a freshen-up. For context, Spurs' 2016-17 squad under Mauricio Pochettino was the youngest in the Premier League based on the average age (weighted by minutes played). This season, they have the third-oldest team in the division.
Fringe players — such as Lucas Moura, Japhet Tanganga and Bryan Gil — must be moved on, while some stalwarts of the club in recent years — including Hugo Lloris, Ben Davies and Eric Dier — are going to need to be replaced within the next two seasons.
One issue Spurs have is that they are going to be shopping in the same market as some of Europe's elite clubs this summer, with Chelsea and potentially Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, among others, seeking replacements of a similar calibre.
Crucially, while a squad rebuild will be high on the priority list of whoever enters the building, the question is what style of manager — and concurrently what style of play — are Tottenham looking for?
Looking at their past three managers, none of Antonio Conte, Nuno Espirito Santo and Jose Mourinho is associated with expansive, free-flowing football. Instead, they imposed a pragmatic, counter-attacking style to varying degrees of success.
Therefore, do Spurs want to build from that stylistic foundation with the players they have? Or take a sharp right turn while they are at this current crossroads?
From a Mauricio Pochettino return to a move for Julian Nagelsmann. From a possession-based Luis Enrique to a counter-attacking Oliver Glasner. Sticking with a proven Premier League manager such as Thomas Frank or Marco Silva. Looking abroad at Feyenoord's Arne Slot or Sergio Conceicao of Porto.
The rumoured shortlist looks… eclectic, to put it politely.
One way we can compare and contrast some of the stylistic differences among those being linked with Tottenham is by looking at their in-possession approach.
Here, the “direct speed” metric outlines how fast a team typically advance the ball towards goal. It's measured in metres per second and a higher number indicates a side more willing to get it forward quickly. “Passes per sequence” reflects how possession-based a side look to be. More passes per sequence suggests a more considered build-up, knocking the ball around more during a given passage of play rather than going for the old hoof upfield.
While some of the managers being spoken about as potential Conte successors at Spurs are more realistic than others, it is interesting to see just how diverse the managerial styles are across the board among these candidates.
If Tottenham were to stick with a direct, counter-attacking style, the data suggests Eintracht Frankfurt's Oliver Glasner could be a good fit.
The Austrian's trusty 3-4-2-1 has propelled the German club to new heights since his arrival in 2021, culminating in an impressive Europa League final triumph last season. A respectable run to the Champions League knockout rounds followed in this one, while a DFB Pokal (Germany's FA Cup) semi-final next month represents another chance for silverware before Glasner enters the final year of his contract.
Characteristic of Glasner's reign has been a symbiosis between flying full-backs and technical inverted wingers.
Last season, the talented Daichi Kamada would drift inside, drawing defenders towards the left half-space to allow the rampaging Filip Kostic to tear forward on the outside, helping the Serb to register 21 goal contributions from the left before a summer move to Juventus. In this one, it's been wide wing-backs stretching the pitch and opening up pockets for the central creators to shine. Kamada, Jesper Lindstrom and the coveted Randal Kolo Muani have reaped the rewards.
The current Tottenham squad includes certain profiles of player who could be of interest to Glasner — none more so than Pedro Porro, who has already shown his attacking intent from the right-hand side since joining in January. With Dejan Kulusevski a real danger cutting inside and Harry Kane happy to drop deep to allow others to attack the space, the 48-year-old would have some exciting attacking variation at his fingertips.
Having already shown himself capable of rebuilding squads – notably signing 12-goal striker Kolo Muani and breakout Denmark international Lindstrom for a combined €7million last summer, a few tweaks could see Glasner and Spurs ready to go.
Exploring each manager's counter-attacking style more carefully, we can also map their team's — or former team's — transitional approach when they lose and regain possession.
This is shown by exploring each side's 'passes per defensive action' (PPDA) — with lower numbers denoting higher pressing intensity — alongside their 'direct attacks', which shows the volume of possessions that start in a team's own half and result in a shot or touch of the ball in the opposition penalty area within 15 seconds.
At the other end of the scale, former Spain and Barcelona boss Luis Enrique would represent a notable contrast to Spurs' current style. As the data suggests, the treble-winning Barcelona coach is all about complete control of the ball, looking to set up camp in the opponents' half.
Building up slowly, working to tempt the other side's defence out of shape with controlled possession high up the pitch, his system is demanding off the ball, desperate to win it back as soon as possible in advanced areas and launch quick, incisive attacks.
Wingers need to be hard-working and committed to the press, strikers must plug those passing lanes, while midfielders will often be asked to take risks and step up to squeeze. Indeed, no other side at the 2022 World Cup were able to pin back their opponents as effectively as Luis Enrique's Spain, only allowing them to progress the play an average of 15.1 metres per possession, the lowest distance in the tournament.
In truth, though, that World Cup saw the frightening best and the frustrating worst of a Luis Enrique team — smashing records with a slick, sharp passing game one week, prodding harmlessly at stubborn low blocks the next.
The 7-0 win over Costa Rica in their opening group game was the masterpiece – with 81.6 per cent possession and 976 passes both competition records – while the penalty shootout defeat to Morocco in the round of 16, Spain seeing one shot on target from 77 per cent of the ball, showed what can happen if the forward passing doesn't quite click.
Some of the midfield ingredients Luis Enrique cherishes appear to be waiting for him in Spurs' squad.
Rodrigo Bentancur is certainly the kind of positionally-intelligent player to keep things ticking over, while Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, with more than twice the passes into the final third as any of his Tottenham team-mates in league football this season, can be the progressive ball-winner by his side. Perhaps Luis Enrique would require an extra, elusive creator to complete his ideal trio to help make those vital incursions into the penalty area more frequent.
The 52-year-old Spaniard is a strong personality – warm, engaging and with a sharp sense of humour. It might not be the most seamless stylistic fit, but perhaps the man and his principles could represent a refreshing change of direction for a squad in desperate need of inspiration.
While many Spurs fans need little reminder of Mauricio Pochettino's style of play, it is worth reacquainting ourselves with his approach in his most recent season as a manager — with Paris Saint-Germain in 2021-22.
Pochettino's side were comfortably the dominant force in Ligue 1 as they won the title with a 15-point cushion but you can see from the data above that they were built on longer sequences of play, with a purposeful, vertical counter-attack — spearheaded by the dynamic trio of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi.
If Pochettino were to sign up for a second spell in charge, it would be likely that Spurs would have to revert to a back-four system. Across his whole time at PSG, the Argentinian did not once field a team containing a back three — electing to play a 4-3-3 system in the majority of games.
This could pose some teething issues for a couple of reasons.
The first is that Spurs' centre-backs are arguably not comfortable enough to operate as a pairing. A new left centre-back is required in the summer window anyway, but Eric Dier would be far too vulnerable to operate in a two-man centre-back partnership if Pochettino were to work with what he had.
The other issue concerns their defence in wide areas. With Emerson Royal, Pedro Porro, Ben Davies, Ryan Sessegnon and the out-on-loan Djed Spence all very much wing-backs rather than 'proper' full-backs stylistically, Spurs would be less equipped to shift to a back four with their current personnel.
Something would have to give and you would imagine Pochettino would want assurances he could rebuild a squad in his name if he were to return — rather than adapt to the qualities he would have at his disposal.
That brings us to one of the most talked-about managers in recent weeks — Julian Nagelsmann.
Aside from his well-known tactical approach based on an aggressive style in and out of possession, Nagelsmann has favoured a back three across his career — more prominently during his time at Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig than in his most recent job at Bayern Munich.
While he did predominantly use a 4-2-3-1 at Bayern, the 35-year-old experimented with a back three in the final weeks of his tenure in an attempt to make the perennial Bundesliga champions less predictable in their in-possession style.
If Nagelsmann were to arrive in the blue and white half of north London, you would strongly suspect he could evolve Spurs into a more youthful, dynamic side, given his desire to coach and work with young players, particularly at Hoffenheim and Leipzig.
One particular strength of Nagelsmann is his ability to make in-game and between-game adjustments, depending on the strength and weaknesses of the opposition at hand. Indeed, the versatility of his principles are a huge advantage for any side he manages, as he can adapt his approach across multiple situations.
This is a key reason why he is one of the most sought-after unattached managers in European football.
Crucially, Spurs have been admirers of Nagelsmann for a long time, and tried to appoint him in 2019 and 2021.
In both instances, the timing wasn't right, but on this occasion, there might be another factor if the German doesn't accept Daniel Levy's offer, with Chelsea believed to be Nagelsmann's preferred destination if he were to choose a Premier League position.
Finally, it's worth taking a closer look at the exploits of Sporting Lisbon coach Ruben Amorim, who Spurs fans will be familiar with after they failed to beat the Portuguese side in two Champions League group games this season (and Sporting more recently came to north London and knocked Arsenal out of the Europa League).
Amorim has a fixed 3-4-3 setup based on high possession that looks to work the ball through the thirds in a careful, considered manner. With forwards such as Tottenham old boy Marcus Edwards, Fransisco Trincao and Pedro Goncalves rotating across the front line, Amorim's wing-backs hold more fixed positions high up to maximise width across the pitch.
So a back-three setup that could mean an easy adaptation for Tottenham's current squad? Well, where Amorim's 3-4-3 differs from Conte's is when his team are out of possession. Amorim asks his players to press high up the pitch with intensity, with only city rivals Benfica averaging a higher PPDA than Sporting in the Portuguese's Primeira Liga this season.
To highlight Sporting's rapid ascent under Amorim, we can turn to FiveThirtyEight's Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings, which estimate a team's overall strength between zero and 100 — using difficulty-adjusted match results and underlying performance metrics to model their offensive and defensive strength.
Amorim was targeted by Sporting after a hugely successful — albeit brief — stint with fellow Portuguese side Braga that saw him win 10 of his 13 games in charge. As you can see below, Sporting were sleepwalking into a decline for multiple seasons before Amorim arrived.
In his first full season, 2021-22, he guided them to a first league title for 19 years with his controlled, possession-dominant style of play.
The biggest sticking point if Spurs pursue Amorim is simply the 38-year-old's reluctance to leave his current project, as he has recently reiterated how happy he is in Lisbon: “Right now, I want to stay here, I want to fulfil my contract and I have very clear objectives for what I want to do.”
Whoever Spurs end up with as their new permanent manager, the recruitment process must be focused and purposeful to avoid a repeat of their managerial dithering in the summer of 2021. Appointing proven Premier League winners in Conte and Mourinho did not prove fruitful, so a long-term rebuilding remit is likely to be high on the priority list for the incumbent.
Spurs' final league position next month is likely to influence which pool of managers they can go fishing in, but this is an appointment they simply cannot afford to get wrong.