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Why a failure to qualify for the UCL may NOT be a total disaster for Aston Villa

  /  autty

A glance at the away dugout at Villa Park tonight should tell Unai Emery that if Aston Villa miss out on Champions League football next season, it is not the end of the world.

If Ange Postecoglou can guide his stumbling Tottenham side to a Europa League final, where a win will take them into the Champions League, surely Emery could do the same with Villa.

But finishing in the top five this term would solve several issues for Villa, whose high wage bill means they are performing a constant balancing act to stay in line with spending rules.

Champions League revenue is far greater than for either of the other European competitions, and while Villa are likely to need to make a major sale before the end of June — the cut-off point for the 2024-25 accounting period — a top-five finish would give them greater spending power on the other side of that deadline.

A place in Europe's premier club competition would also calm nerves in the squad. After helping Villa reach the quarter-finals of this season's competition, the players are hungry for more. And without Champions League football, interest from rivals in players such as Morgan Rogers is certain to grow.

However, if Villa do fall short it may be only a temporary absence. Manchester United and Spurs have performed dreadfully in domestic football this term, yet they will contest the Europa League final and the winner will qualify for the Champions League. If the 16th and 17th best teams in England can go all the way in the competition this season, why not Villa next?

They have a talented, battle-hardened squad and a coach who has won the Europa League four times. While the Champions League requires Emery to pick his strongest team in every game, the lower standard of the Europa League would give him more room to rest and rotate. That would keep key players fresher for longer, allowing Villa to mount a season-long assault on a top-four finish.

Ollie Watkins, Youri Tielemans and Rogers have each made 52 appearances this term, with

Ezri Konsa on 48 and John McGinn 47. Only after January, when Villa made five signings including the loan captures of Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford, did Emery have the squad depth he required and Villa's form since has been excellent.

With similar options next season, Villa should make progress on all fronts. Yet there are problems to solve. Profit and sustainability rules are a regular headache. The calculations are made on a three-year rolling cycle, meaning that — for the first time — the £100million sale of homegrown star Jack Grealish to Manchester City will not be factored into the latest set of sums.

Even though Villa made well in excess of £75m from this season's Champions League campaign, a second consecutive season at the top table would make everyone in the accounts department breathe a huge sigh of relief.

Villa have won seven of their last eight in the league and six more points from games against Spurs and United would give them a fighting chance of a top-five finish.

'My objective is to play in Europe every year, and next year we will compete in Europe for the third consecutive season,' said Emery.

'Of course, there are three different European competitions and each is a route to a trophy.

'We will finish the season having played nearly 60 games and this shows the demands are increasing, but I like to play in Europe. It brings prestige for the club, so to qualify again is really fantastic.'

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