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Women's Super League predictions: Man City backed to record historic derby win over Man Utd

  /  autty

Manchester City could extend their perfect start to the Women's Super League season when they face rivals Manchester United in the blockbuster clash of MD7.

Another derby, this time in north London, starts the weekend's action as Tottenham look to get back to winning ways against fellow strugglers Arsenal on Saturday.

Brighton host West Ham in the other match that day, before unbeaten Chelsea travel to Crystal Palace in Sunday's early kick-off.

Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic go head-to-head as they both look to escape the relegation zone, while Everton welcome Aston Villa to Goodison Park.

Alexia Putellas and the London City Lionesses face Liverpool before the Manchester derby rounds off the weekend.

Here's how the Opta supercomputer predicts MD7 of the WSL will unfold in what promises to be an exciting round of fixtures.

TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL

Tottenham have lost only two of their last five WSL home games against Arsenal (W1 D1), drawing 0-0 in this fixture last season, but Spurs' recent record in the competition has let them down.

After going unbeaten in their first four league games this season (W3 D1), Spurs have lost 6-1 to London City and 6-2 to Chelsea in their last two games.

Indeed, Spurs are only the second team in WSL history to concede six or more goals in back-to-back games, after Doncaster Rovers Belles in 2013.

And the supercomputer has backed them to falter again, as they won just 21.6% of the pre-match simulations and clinched a draw in a further 21.8%.

Arsenal are winless in their last four games across all competitions (D2 L2), but have been given a 56.6% win probability.

Arsenal have won 10 of their 13 north London derbies in the WSL (D2 L1), scoring five goals in their last two wins: 5-0 in February 2025, 5-2 in March 2026.

The Gunners will be keen to see Alessia Russo return to her best; she has scored more WSL goals against Spurs (eight) than any other opponent.

BRIGHTON v WEST HAM

Just one point separates ninth-place West Ham and 12th-place Brighton, and the supercomputer is backing the Seagulls to win their second league game of the season.

Brighton have a 50.4% chance of victory to the Hammers' 24.5%, with the probability of a draw coming in at 25.1%.

Brighton have scored seven goals across their last two league games, more than across their previous seven (six) – they could score at least two goals in three consecutive WSL matches in the same season for the first time.

And after losing their first two WSL home games against West Ham, Brighton have since won five of six home meetings with the Hammers in the top-flight (L1).

However, West Ham have won four of their nine WSL away games in 2026 (L5), as many away victories as they managed across 2023 (two), 2024 (one) and 2025 (one) combined.

CRYSTAL PALACE V CHELSEA

This is the fourth successive WSL season Chelsea have started with an unbeaten run of at least six, and the third in a row that they have conceded exactly three times after six matches.

The Blues are unbeaten in each of their last 38 WSL games across September, October and November (W33 D5), since a 2-1 loss away to Liverpool in September 2022.

The supercomputer has given Chelsea a 75.4% likelihood of victory, the most of any team on MD7.

Palace have a 10.7% chance of causing a major upset and a 13.9% probability of clinching a draw, but their WSL record against the Blues does not bode well.

In the WSL era, Chelsea have won all seven of their matches against Palace in all competitions by an aggregate score of 25-0.

Palace have also lost 10 of their 11 London derbies in the WSL (D1), conceding 47 goals and scoring just five times. Chelsea meanwhile are unbeaten in their last 11 away derbies (W9 D2) in the competition and could break the record for the longest streak without defeat on the road in such matches.

BIRMINGHAM CITY V CHARLTON ATHLETIC

Birmingham and Charlton occupy the bottom two spots in the WSL, with neither side recording a win following their respective promotions.

Charlton (L6) remain one of two teams without a point across the WSL and WSL2 this season (also Durham – L5); the only sides to lose their first seven matches in the WSL are Yeovil Town (first seven in 2017) and Leicester City (first nine in 2021).

Last time out against Arsenal, Birmingham took a point from a WSL away game against a 'big four' opponent for the first time in 14 attempts.

Birmingham are the supercomputer's favourites for this basement battle, winning 53.3% of the pre-match simulations, though Charlton, who won 22.8% of the simulations and secured a draw in 23.9%, have a strong record in this fixture.

They have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three away league games against Birmingham, taking seven points from those matches (two 1-0 wins and a 0-0 draw).

EVERTON V ASTON VILLA

Everton have won five of their last seven WSL home games (L2), having lost a club-record six in a row before that. The Toffees could now win four in a row on home turf for the very first time, and they have the backing of the supercomputer.

Everton have a 50.8% chance of victory at Goodison Park, while Villa have a 24.2% probability of winning, and a 25% chance of snatching a draw.

Villa have only won one of their last five WSL away games against Everton (W3 D1), scoring first on each of those five visits.

They picked up their first victory of the season last time out against Liverpool, though they have not won back-to-back WSL games since winning their final five matches of the 2024-25 campaign.

It will be a special occasion for Villa's interim boss Brian Sorensen, who has taken charge of more WSL games with Everton (80) than any other manager.

LIVERPOOL V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

London City are on a four-game winning streak in the WSL, which is as many victories as they had achieved through their first 13 games in the competition under Eder Maestre (W4 D3 L6).

They could become just the fourth team to win three consecutive WSL away games by at least three goals, after Arsenal (longest run is five), Man City (four) and Chelsea (three), but they are set for a stern test at St Helens Stadium.

London City have a 41.6% likelihood of victory according to the supercomputer, which has also given Liverpool a 32.8% chance of winning and a 25.6% probability of holding their opponents to a draw at home.

Liverpool are winless in each of their last five league games against London City (D3 L2), since a 1-0 away win in December 2020 in the WSL2.

However, 67% of Liverpool's points won in the WSL in 2026 have come in home matches (14/21), the highest percentage by any side with at least games played this year.

MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY

Victory for league leaders Manchester City would prove to be historic; they won 3-0 at home and 3-0 away to Manchester United last season and could be the first team on either side of the Manchester derby to win three in a row in the WSL.

City have maintained a perfect record in the WSL so far this season (6/6) and could equal their best start to a campaign in the competition alongside 2017-18 (7/7), when they were also reigning champions.

The supercomputer has given Andree Jeglertz's side a 48.5% chance of victory against the Red Devils, who have a 27.5% probability of winning and a 24% likelihood of clinching a draw.

United have won their last three WSL games, having gone winless in the seven prior (D3 L4); however, the Red Devils have won the fewest points in games between the 'big four' since the start of last season (four – D4 L4) while City have won the most (15 – W5 L2).

If United are to cause an upset on Sunday, they will need to find a way to keep Khadija Shaw quiet.

Shaw could make her 100th WSL appearance – with 90 goals in 99 games, she has already scored 12 more goals than any other player managed in their first 100 outings. Shaw could also become the first player to score in their first six starts of a WSL season.

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