Nearly one third of the teams in the Premier League are set to be involved in next season's Champions League, but the identity of the teams making the cut is far from certain
As we head into the final four weeks of the Premier League season, there's every chance we're looking at six qualification spots for next season's Champions League. And that's all down to the performances of English clubs in Europe this term.
We've known since early April that there would be a fifth qualifying team, with Arsenal's home victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals allowing the Premier League to ensure one of the two European Performance Spots for next season. Since then, Spain locked up the second of those bonus spots, with the fifth-placed team in both countries' leagues qualifying.
The winners of the Europa League will also qualify for next season's Champions League if they haven't already made it via their league position. That's what happened in the 2022-23 season, when Sevilla finished 12th in La Liga but beat Roma for Europa League glory.
We still have another leg to play in the semi-finals of this season's Europa League, but there's every chance the Premier League will lock in its sixth spot. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are both on course for bottom-half league finishes, but both have one foot in the final.
United sealed a thumping win in Bilbao, while Spurs hold a 3-1 lead over Bodo/Glimt ahead of a trip to Norway, and if they meet in the final then the winner would claim that sixth spot. But who will join them? Mirror Football takes a closer look at the teams in contention.
Newcastle United - 62 points
With rivals facing one another during the run-in, second-place Arsenal are essentially assured a top five spot despite not being mathematically secure. And it's Newcastle who find themselves best-placed to join them.
Eddie Howe's side were all the way down in 12th in mid-December, but a recent rally has put them in pole position. Their last seven games have brought six victories, with a 4-1 reverse at Aston Villa the only exception.
Much will hinge on their two games against other top-five sides - at home to Chelsea and away at Arsenal. Either side of that they have meetings with Brighton and Everton, and there's little margin for error.
Manchester City - 61 points
By Manchester City's standards, this season has been a huge disappointment, and yet it could still be salvaged. The Champions League and Carabao Cup dreams ended early, but Pep Guardiola's team can still win the FA Cup and qualify for Europe's top table next term.
A run of one win in nine games left them seventh after a Boxing Day draw with Everton. They're currently on a run of 14 points from six games, though, coming back from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace before bagging vital late goals to see off Everton and Aston Villa.
City have arguably the friendliest fixture list of the clubs in the mix. They begin with a Friday night game against Wolves, followed by Southampton away, Bournemouth at home and - finally - an away game against a Fulham side who may need a result for European qualification themselves.
Chelsea - 60 points
Chelsea have gone in the opposite direction to some of their rivals. The Blues were second at Christmas, but are now at risk of missing out on the Champions League altogether.
Some untimely injuries have stopped Enzo Maresca's side from building up a head of steam, but Nicolas Jackson's return is valuable. Jackson scored a weekend winner against Everton before adding two more against Djurgarden, where a hefty away win should allow Maresca to rotate in Europe and push for vital league results.
Their fixture list is the main obstacle, with away games at Newcastle and Nottingham Forest providing real tests. They also host champions Liverpool this weekend, with their other home fixture seeing Manchester United come to Stamford Bridge.
Nottingham Forest - 60 points
Forest have been in a prime spot for much of the season, but the cracks are now starting to show. Defeat at home to Brentford on Thursday left them sixth - the first time they have ended a game week outside the top five since early December - at the worst possible time.
A home match against relegated Leicester ought to bring three points, and there's a chance to complete a double over struggling West Ham, but the other games aren't the easiest. Crystal Palace go into this weekend's meeting buoyed by reaching the FA Cup final - something which Nuno's Forest weren't able to do themselves as they lost their semi-final to Manchester City.
It could yet all come down to the finale, with Nuno and his team welcoming Chelsea to the City Ground. The reverse fixture ended all-square, and it remains to be seen who will need what.
Aston Villa - 57 points
Villa have the trickiest task, purely based on points accumulated. They sit three points behind fifth-place Chelsea, with a vastly inferior goal difference, and five adrift of Newcastle in third.
Unai Emery's team won five on the spin before losing to Manchester City last time out, and they may well need a similar perfect run to end the campaign. They won't have the distraction of an FA Cup final, having lost their semi-final to Crystal Palace, while they also won't be able to call upon Marcus Rashford after he missed that game with what's expected to be a season-ending injury.
A failure to beat Fulham this weekend might all but end their hopes of returning to the Champions League, but win that and win at Bournemouth and it might be on. Villa end the season with games against Tottenham and Manchester United, both of whom might have more than half an eye on that Europa League final.
The Mirror Football verdict
For much of the season, it's looked as though we might get an interloper or two in the Champions League places. However, with Bournemouth and Fulham falling away, Forest remain the best hope of a first-time qualifier.
It might well be a bridge too far for Forest, too. The recent home defeats to Everton and Brentford leave Nuno's men in the unfamiliar position of playing catch-up, and they might have just run out of steam.
Newcastle and Manchester City look in the best shape to get over the line, and their experience could tell. Chelsea have found a way to grind out results of late, with their comeback win at Fulham a prime example, and they look like they'll just have enough.