According to German media Sport1, the German national team will most likely face Paraguay in the round of 16.
The standings of third-placed teams in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage are crucial. Eight of the 12 third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16. Germany's opponent in Boston on Monday will also be determined by this table.
Sweden, Ecuador, and Bosnia and Herzegovina have already qualified. If points and goal difference are tied, the tiebreaker criteria are applied in this order: goals scored, fewest penalty points from yellow and red cards, and finally FIFA World Ranking.
However, all indications suggest that Germany will face Paraguay. The match will take place in Boston on Monday. Various tournament simulations, including those by The New York Times, currently estimate the probability of this matchup at around 99%.
According to FIFA rules, there are 495 possible combinations for assigning the best third-placed teams to the round of 16. Based on current results, only 51 combinations remain. According to 45 of these scenarios, Nagelsmann's team is most likely to face Paraguay after losing 1–2 to Ecuador on Thursday evening; in 5 scenarios they would face Scotland, and in only 1 scenario they would face Sweden.
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