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Premier League best bets: 10/1 Erling Haaland to score a header

  /  autty

Our tipster Jones Knows is looking to end another hugely profitable season with a bang. He's got eyes on Erling Haaland scoring a header at 10/1.

How did we get on last weekend?

Time flies, eh? Another Premier League season has come and gone - one with a World Cup as the filling between the crusts. I'm a year older - there's one certainty you can count on - and in October, I'll be a dad to two children as another tubthumping maniac child joins our ranks. The days of spending all afternoon in the pub at university on a final day of the season, clutching a 10-fold both-teams-to-score coupon with anticipation of a goal frenzy and then nine of them coming in, seems like a lifetime ago.

At least I'm a consistent winner at the game these days. The column this season has once again turned a healthy profit from a small outlay with +48.5 (that's £485 profit for those following with £10 a point) in the bank to follow up +65 from last season.

Last weekend's 15/2 treble winner of Tosin Adarabioyo posting at least a shot (he had three), Nottingham Forest to win or draw (they won) and Leeds most booking points vs West Ham (they won that 3-1) made it two winning weeks in a row. There might be another eight points of profit winging it's way from our ante post selections if Callum Wilson, tipped at 33/1 each-way in the Premier League top goalscorer market, can find one or two goals at Chelsea to break into the top four so the each way part of the bet lands.

Although there have been some knee-sliding highlights this season - Ben Chilwell scoring first at 33/1 - we must mention the laughable lows, too. Leicester to finish top four? Lol. Spurs to win a trophy? Lmao. Leeds to beat Liverpool? 6-1, pal - Jones Knows Nothing.

As always, thanks for reading and interacting - even those who love using the clown emoji. Best to get your views in before the prediction or bet in question though, it's cheating otherwise. Have a good summer - and I'll be back for Royal Ascot.

P+L = +48.5

1pt on Erling Haaland to score a header vs Brentford (10/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

It's proven frustrating that I've not been able to write about Erling Haaland due to him never being remotely backable due to his weekly prohibitive odds. But finally, there's a betting angle to be had with the 10/1 with Sky Bet about him scoring a header catching my eye.

If you hadn't noticed, he's a phenomenal footballer - perhaps the greatest we've ever seen on these shores. It's 52 goals in 51 appearances this season which makes him the top scorer of players in major European Leagues. But crucially for our angle, 51 of those 52 goals scored have come from inside the box and eight of his 52 goals have been headers. That equates to 15 per cent of all his goals being headers which in turn correlates around a 5/1 chance of him scoring a header - give or take a few per cent for strength of opposition.

I think that probability could be trending upwardly too looking at his last 10 appearances as his team-mates seem to be presenting him with more headed chances. He's had 11 headed attempts in his last 10 games, scoring in the win over Everton and having one chalked off vs Brighton, meaning 31 per cent of all his headers at goal this season have come in the last 10 matches.

With his thirst for goals still high, that 10/1 on offer looks a tantalising prospect to attack.