Madrid have cut the gap on Barça by 11 points after the 4-0 defeat in the Bernabéu Clásico.
On October 26, Real Madrid’s prospects in the league looked grim following a severe setback in the Clásico at the Santiago Bernabéu: a crushing 4-0 defeat left the Blaugrana six points ahead of Los Blancos.
To make matters worse, Barcelona had all but secured the head-to-head goal differential, meaning Madrid would need an extraordinary performance at Montjuïc to turn things around. Expectations weighed heavily on Ancelotti’s team this season. The arrival of Mbappé had led many to believe the domestic championship would be a walk in the park for them, but reality proved otherwise.
The following day brought further complications, even if through an unusual and tragic twist. A devastating DANA storm on Spain’s eastern coast forced the postponement of Valencia vs. Madrid, while Barcelona secured a 3-1 victory over Espanyol in the derby.
Despite showing significant defensive vulnerabilities, Barça were saved by narrow offside calls against Espanyol’s attackers. By the end of match day 12, Barça held a commanding nine-point lead over Madrid in the LaLiga standings. However, what followed in the next seven match days has been nothing short of a dramatic turnaround.
Madrid and Barça enjoy contrasting fortunes
Since that point, Real Madrid and Barça have played seven matches, although only six were part of the league schedule. This discrepancy arises because both teams, participating in the Spanish Super Cup in January 2025, had advanced their 19th-round fixtures.
In these early games, the Catalans came out on top with a 5-1 victory in Mallorca, while Madrid suffered a 2-1 defeat at San Mamés. However, the broader analysis of these seven matches reveals a stark contrast in performance: Ancelotti’s team amassed 16 points out of a possible 21, while Flick’s Barça managed only 5.
The decline under Flick is striking. Initially lauded for revitalising Barça, the German coach now faces harsh comparisons with the past two seasons under Xavi, where he comes up short. Xavi’s Barça earned 50 points in the first half of the 2022-23 season and 41 in 2023-24; Flick, in comparison, has only managed 38.
Madrid’s dominance during this stretch is indisputable. They won five games, drew one (against Rayo Vallecano), and lost another (to Athletic Bilbao). They scored 20 goals (nearly three per game) and conceded just seven—squeezed into three games: three goals against Rayo, two against Bilbao, and two against Sevilla at the Bernabéu.
Barcelona’s poor recent form
In their other four matches, they kept clean sheets. Barça’s form, by contrast, has been abysmal: just one win, two draws, and four losses, with no clean sheets. They scored 11 goals—nearly half in their win against Mallorca—but conceded 11 as well.
During this period, Madrid’s 16-point haul has dwarfed Barça’s 5-point return, allowing Los Blancos to erase an 11-point deficit and leap two points ahead of the Catalans in the standings. Furthermore, Madrid have a game in hand: their rescheduled clash with Valencia on January 3. A victory in that match would match Barça’s earlier result (a 3-1 win over Espanyol) and extend Madrid’s lead to five points.
The only team currently capable of surpassing Madrid is Atlético Madrid. On matchday 11, as Barça triumphed in the Clásico, Simeone’s side suffered a 1-0 loss to Real Betis at the Benito Villamarín, leaving them 10 points adrift of the leaders and outside the top three, with Villarreal in third.
Since then, however, Atlético have been flawless, recording seven consecutive league wins, scoring 17 goals, and conceding just five. This remarkable run has propelled them to the top of the table, one point ahead of Madrid, with the same number of matches played.
The title race is now wide open, with four teams—Madrid, Atlético, Barcelona, and Athletic Club—separated by just five points. Athletic, currently fourth with 36 points, has claimed 17 of the last 21 available. What seemed inevitable at the end of October no longer holds true. Barça have crumbled, while Madrid and Atlético have surged forward, reigniting the battle for the championship.