Manchester United have been given a four per cent chance of winning the Europa League this season after being drawn against Spanish giants Barcelona in the play-offs.
Despite beating Real Sociedad in their Group E showdown, United finished as runners-up there, as they needed to win that final match by two goals. Alejandro Garnacho settled the scores at the Anoeta Stadium on Thursday night with his first senior strike for the club.
It was a magical moment for the highly-rated Argentina starlet, but with no second goal to follow it meant United would have to do last-16 progression the hard way. That has been underlined with Erik ten Hag and his team being drawn against Barcelona following their elimination from the Champions League.
Naturally, given their route to this stage of the competition, the Catalans are favourites to win the Europa League - with their chances rated at 23 per cent - with Arsenal (18 per cent) and Ajax (10 per cent) seen to be the other main contenders as per the FiveThirtyEight supercomputer.
The same data makes United fourth-favourites (four per cent) alongside Feyenoord, PSV, Sociedad and SC Freiburg. But what about qualification to later stages?
FiveThirtyEight is currently giving United a 28 per cent likelihood to beat Barcelona in the play-offs. Ten Hag and his squad are, meanwhile, viewed as eight per cent shots to reach the final in Budapest on May 31, 2023.
FiveThirtyEight uses SPI ratings - which have an attacking and defensive component - to determine which team is going to win any specific game. This is then all built up to see how many points each side will accumulate for when the season ends or have the best chance in knockout scenarios.