Ange Postecoglou continues his search for a first victory as Nottingham Forest manager as they host Chelsea this weekend, but barely a month — and only seven games — into his tenure, the Australian is already fighting for time.
As Postecoglou prepares his side for Saturday’s lunchtime game at the City Ground, there are questions over what Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis is thinking, how the players are feeling and how much hinges on this game. This is before we get to on-pitch considerations and fan sentiment.
How much hangs on Saturday’s result?
The feeling is that this game — or the outcome of it — could have a decisive influence on Postecoglou’s future. But, ultimately, it will be down to the mood of Marinakis.
The Forest owner has been pondering his options That is not unusual — the Greek shipping magnate always likes to have a plan B in place. Historically, he normally knows who he wants to appoint — or even has a replacement in place — before deciding to make a change.
Having options does not always mean Marinakis will utilise them, but he has been seeking the counsel of those close to him to gauge the mood of supporters and of the dressing room.
If he does make a change, sources with an understanding of how Marinakis works, say he would favour appointing a manager with established Premier League experience, who could make an immediate impact.
Marco Silva, who previously worked at Marinakis’ Greek club Olympiacos, remains somebody admired by the owner. But, while he is in the final year of his contract at Fulham, any compensation package would prove expensive.
Sean Dyche, the former Burnley and Everton manager, is currently out of work and so compensation would not be a concern. Dyche led Burnley to a seventh-place finish in the Premier League and recently steadied the ship at Everton at a time when they were threatened by relegation. Such qualities could be valuable as Forest find themselves navigating stormy waters.
But the job is still Postecoglou’s if he can inspire an immediate turnaround in fortunes.
What is the mood of the players?
The squad were close to previous manager Nuno Espirito Santo and have been coming to terms with his departure. But the sadness at seeing Nuno depart does not equate to an anti-Postecoglou sentiment.
The players, according to sources close to the squad, do not know what to expect with regards to Postecoglou’s future — there is a mood of uncertainty. But they are also focused on preparing for two big fixtures, with Porto in the Europa League on Thursday following the Chelsea game.
Some of the 12 players who were away on international duty returned to training yesterday. Others, including Chris Wood, who had a knee problem with New Zealand, will not arrive back until today.
How will fans react on Saturday? Has there been an ‘Ange effect’ on ticket sales?
General-sale tickets were still available for Saturday’s game as of last night. There is also still availability for tickets for the visit of Porto. They have been on general sale since Tuesday.
Both games could sell out before kick-off, but the fact sales have seemingly been slower (including for only the second home European game in 30 years) could be a reflection of the mood of supporters towards Postecoglou, a potential negative “Ange effect”.
Postecoglou has only been in charge for two home games — and in his second, the 3-2 defeat to Midtjylland, he had to listen to chants of “You’re getting sacked in the morning” from the Forest fans. The Greek-born Australian has work to do to win over supporters. Forest’s first home game in the Europa League should have been a night of celebration; a landmark moment. It was memorable, just not for the right reasons.
Five of Postecoglou’s seven games in charge have been away, but Forest also lost his only other home game, against Sunderland (1-0). In recent years, fans have provided outstanding backing on the banks of the Trent. But the mood could quickly change if Forest do not make a positive start.
How will Postecoglou approach the game?
In the 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United, the approach was more akin to what Tottenham fans might have been used to seeing in the Europa League last season, when Postecoglou took a more pragmatic outlook. He sacrificed some attacking intent for more defensive solidity. For almost an hour at St James’ Park, it looked to be working.
Only Manchester City (15) and Arsenal (14) have scored more goals than Chelsea (13) in seven games. But, equally, Enzo Maresca’s side are not invulnerable defensively — they have not kept a Premier League clean sheet since August, while conceding nine times. Chelsea’s opposition this season have averaged an expected goals tally (xG) of 9.7, which is the fifth-highest in the division.
The pressure on Postecoglou to secure his first victory only adds further intrigue. Does he continue his quest to instil his own football identity or does he again take a more cautious, considered approach?
Does he know his best team?
In his seven games, Postecoglou has not yet named an unchanged side.
In the six fixtures since his debut defeat at Arsenal, he has averaged 5.6 changes to his team per game — although that figure is swayed by him changing 10 players for the Carabao Cup game at Swansea City and then making seven changes when they returned to Premier League action at Turf Moor.
“I’ve never thought about it in terms of what my best team is, because I know the nature of football is that there’s always constant change. We are definitely in a period of discovery,” Postecoglou said before the Newcastle game. “Some of the rotation is natural, it has to happen (to protect the players physically).”
Does he stick with a back three against Chelsea or return to a back four? Is there a temptation to restore Murillo? Will Wood’s knee problem — he will be assessed when he returns to Nottingham — mean Igor Jesus gets another opportunity up front?
It is hard to predict what his team, formation and overall mentality will look like. Nuno’s habitual talk of ‘bonds’ and understanding feels like a distant memory.
What would be the financial implications of another managerial change?
Forest have already had to reach an agreement with Nuno over his departure — they will not have planned to finance a second managerial change within barely a month.
Postecoglou signed a contract until the summer of 2027 when he joined on September 9 and any payoff would likely be significant.
Furthermore, Forest are one of nine Premier League clubs who must abide by UEFA spending rules because of their participation in European competition this season.
Today (October 16) is a key date, as it is when those clubs must submit their 2024-25 financials to UEFA.
The Athletic recently explained UEFA’s primary two financial regulations — the football-earnings rule and the squad-cost rule. Forest’s financial position is outlined in more detail here, but in short, they are estimated to be on the wrong side of these financial rulings.
A second managerial change so soon into a season will not help the financial situation long-term.