The final matchday of the Champions League league phase arrives with virtually everything still up for grabs. With all fixtures played simultaneously, many teams remain in limbo. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, Man City, PSG and the rest are all targeting a place in the top eight, while others are dreaming of reaching the round of 16 via the playoffs.
According to Opta, all three Spanish heavyweights will finish inside the top eight. Real Madrid would drop one spot to end fourth, while Barcelona and Atlético would climb into sixth and eighth respectively, despite both starting the matchday outside the top eight. Athletic would also meet their objective, rising two places to finish 22nd.
Based on Opta’s AI projections, the eight teams qualifying directly for the round of 16 would be Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Tottenham, Barcelona, Manchester City and Atlético Madrid. Missing out would be major names such as Paris Saint-Germain in ninth, Chelsea in 11th, and Italian sides Juventus and Inter in 13th and 14th.
At the bottom end of the table, Napoli would scrape through as the final team qualifying for the playoff round. Clubs such as Benfica, PSV and Ajax would not be so fortunate and would be eliminated from the Champions League. Villarreal are projected to finish second from bottom, ahead only of Kairat.
Projected UCL playoff matchups
Under Opta’s predicted standings, Real Madrid could face one of four teams in the round of 16: Newcastle, Juventus, Galatasaray or Qarabag, always with the second leg at home. Barcelona’s potential opponents would be Chelsea, Sporting, Monaco or Athletic. Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, could be drawn against PSG, Atalanta, Olympiakos or Napoli.
Athletic would first have to navigate the playoff round, where they could meet Chelsea or Sporting, before potentially facing Barcelona or Tottenham in the round of 16. If the draw and Opta’s projections align, there could even be an all-Spanish clash between Athletic and Barcelona in the last 16 – and a Clásico in the quarterfinals.
Predicted UCL winner
Throughout the tournament, Opta continuously updates its projections for the eventual champion. At this stage, Arsenal are the clear favorites to win the Champions League, with Mikel Arteta’s side having won every game so far and currently setting the pace (although that was the case a year ago with Liverpool!) Bayern Munich sit second, followed by Manchester City in third.
Barcelona appear as the highest-ranked Spanish team in fourth place. Despite finishing behind Real Madrid in the standings, Opta give them a better chance of lifting the trophy. Liverpool and the reigning champions PSG are projected fifth and sixth, followed by Chelsea in seventh. Real Madrid do not appear until eighth in the title favorites.
The results of this final matchday will shape the entire playoff picture in the second year of a format that leaves almost everything open until the very end – with a unified kickoff and countless possible twists unfolding over the course of the night.