The season has reached its halfway point. LaLiga clubs have completed the first half of the campaign, which has delivered several surprises and plenty of entertaining football, with more to come in the months ahead.
One of the biggest storylines so far is the Barcelona-Real Madrid duel for the title. Espanyol have emerged as an unexpected contender for European qualification, while several historic clubs are facing serious difficulties. Valencia, in particular, stand out, having reached this stage of the season among the relegation candidates.
There is still a long road ahead. With 57 points still available and the transfer window open until 2 February, clubs have time to adjust their squads and push towards their objectives.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Barcelona are the clear favourites to win La Liga. Hansi Flick’s side are given a 78.59 percent probability of retaining the title. This is despite holding only a four-point lead over Real Madrid, who won the first Clásico 2-1 and will host the return fixture in mid-May. That match could prove decisive, with just three matchdays remaining after it.
In contrast, Opta gives Real Madrid only a 19.55 percent chance of finishing the season as champions. This is notable given that Carlo Ancelotti’s team led the league for nine matchdays during the first half of the campaign and remain firmly in contention. Atlético Madrid are assigned a 1.02 percent chance, while Villarreal sit even lower at 0.84 percent.
Interestingly, Opta rates Atlético, currently fourth, as having a stronger outlook than Villarreal despite being behind them in the table. Marcelino’s side still have a postponed match against Levante, which, if won, would leave them just one point behind Real Madrid and five adrift of Barcelona. While Villarreal have an opportunity to challenge the established order, the margin for error is slim and the task ahead remains extremely demanding.
Regarding the battle for European qualification, the supercomputer leaves little doubt about which teams are most likely to secure Champions League places: Barcelona (100%), Real Madrid (99.91%), Atlético Madrid (95.63%) and Villarreal (92.65%). However, it does assign small chances to potential outsiders, with Betis given a 5.07% probability and Espanyol 4.45%.
Espanyol, in particular, are backing up those numbers with their performances. They have been one of the revelations of the season and currently sit fifth in the table, firmly in contention for European football. Opta gives them a 31.95% chance of qualifying for the Europa League and a 28.90% chance of reaching the Europa Conference League.
Just as some are allowing themselves to dream after this first half of the season, others are starting to tremble. This is the case for Valencia, who finish this first part of the competition in third-to-last position and with a 30.77% probability of ending up in the relegation zone and playing in the Segunda División next season.
Oviedo need a miracle, as they aim for safety in the Primera after a 24-year absence. The Asturians haven’t won since the end of September (against Valencia) and are given an 83.76% chance of being relegated. Levante are also in dire straits, with a 52.43% chance of going down.
Other teams used to these situations and narrowly avoiding relegation are also in the fight, such as Alavés (24.24%). Mallorca, who almost finished in European qualification last year, are also on the brink (24.69%).