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The Numbers Game: Simeone and Barca chase LaLiga history in top-of-the-table tussle

  /  autty

Going into the second international break of the season, top spot in LaLiga will be up for grabs this weekend.

Having won seven straight games in the competition, Atletico Madrid are just two points behind Barcelona and will hope to leapfrog the reigning champions at the Estadio Metropolitano.

But there is also plenty more at stake, as Diego Simeone and the Blaugrana both have records in their sights, while Julian Alvarez will be going up against the club he tried to force a move to in the summer.

But who will come out on top? Here is our data-powered preview for the standout fixture of the weekend in LaLiga.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Barcelona ahead of this meeting between potential title rivals, with their win probability standing at 49.3%.

Of the 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the model, Atletico were victorious in 27.5% and earned a point in 23.2%.

Barca are currently the supercomputer's LaLiga title favourites, with their chances of successfully defending their crown being estimated at 61.1%. 

Real Madrid are second favourites at 31.3%, but Atleti's 7.2% hope will surely climb if they take all three points on Sunday.

Atletico have won two of their last five games against Barcelona in all competitions (L3), all of which have taken place this calendar year.

The teams faced off twice in the Copa del Rey semi-finals in March, with Atleti winning the first leg 4-0 on their own turf before holding on for a 4-3 aggregate triumph, while Los Colchoneros also won 2-0 at Camp Nou in the Champions League quarter-finals in April, going through 3-2 on aggregate on that occasion. 

Those two victories are one more than Atleti had managed in their previous 10 meetings with the Blaugrana overall (W1 D1 L8). In LaLiga, though, Barcelona have won on each of their last four trips to the Metropolitano. 

Now, they could become just the third team in LaLiga's history to achieve five straight away wins over Atleti, after Athletic Club in 1955 and Real Madrid in 2013 (a run of six).

Simeone eyes outright record, Alvarez faces 'dream' club

Atletico's current seven-match winning streak is their second-longest in LaLiga since the start of 2021-22, having strung together eight victories in January 2025.

And their most recent LaLiga win – a 2-0 success against Levante last weekend, which was followed by a Champions League loss to Bayern Munich on Tuesday – was a landmark result for their head coach.

Having won 344 of his 565 LaLiga matches, all of which have come with Atleti (D180 L232), Simeone sits level with Luis Aragones as the two coaches with the most victories in the competition's history, so he has a chance to make history outright on Sunday.

And, though Simeone's teams have long been associated with a dogged, tenacious defensive approach, he deserves credit for making Atleti easier on the eye in 2026-27. 

Indeed, Los Colchoneros have scored seven goals from build-up attacks in LaLiga this season, with only Barca (eight) netting more in the competition this term.

Atleti also rank second, behind Barca, for successful passes (5,668) in the competition, while their average of 4.75 passes per sequence (also second to Barca) and direct speed of 1.65 metres per second (joint-fourth slowest) are also indicators of a more deliberate, considered approach.

And Sunday's game will be considered something of a grudge match for many senior figures at Atleti, given the way Barca relentlessly pursued Alvarez during the summer transfer window.

Blaugrana president Joan Laporta was not shy about his desire to take the Argentine to Camp Nou, but Atleti's hierarchy stood by their insistence that there would be no negotiations with their domestic rivals. 

Alvarez, for his part, has scored four goals in nine appearances against Barcelona for Atleti (in all competitions), his joint-most against any club, alongside Madrid and Rayo Vallecano. 

Alvarez described Barcelona as his "dream" club this summer, and it is unlikely their interest has entirely faded. For now, though, he has a chance to deal an early blow to the Blaugrana's hopes of a third straight Spanish title.

Free-scoring Barca also hunting LaLiga history

Barca, meanwhile, are coming off the back of a 3-0 Champions League victory over Aston Villa on Tuesday.

That result underlined their status as one of the favourites to be crowned European champions in 2026-27 – the Opta supercomputer assigns them a 9.8% chance of lifting the trophy.

Raphinha helped himself to a brace on Wednesday, after some loose Villa play gifted Lamine Yamal the chance to open the scoring.

Raphinha has made a truly exceptional start to 2026-27, scoring 15 goals in 10 appearances in La Liga. He is just the second player to reach this tally within 10 games at the start of a campaign, after Real Madrid icon Cristiano Ronaldo in 2014-15 (18 goals in 10 matches).

With Raphinha and Yamal leading their frontline, it is no surprise that Barca have put their domestic opponents to the sword this season, trouncing Alaves 6-1 last weekend.

Hansi Flick's team have plundered an incredible 46 goals in just 11 outings in LaLiga this season, and they could make a piece of competition history this weekend. 

The only team to score more goals through their first 11 matches of a campaign was Athletic in 1930-31, who hit the net 49 times (also 46 for Sevilla in 1940-41).

So, a three-goal haul this Sunday would see Flick's side tie that record, while four goals would make them the most prolific team ever by this stage of a season. 

Barca have scored at least three goals in all five of their away games in LaLiga this term, winning each of them. The Blaugrana have only started two previous campaigns with six straight road wins, winning their first 10 away matches in both 2010-11 and 2012-13. 

It has not always been smooth sailing for Flick's side against Atleti, though. In fact, the German's three defeats in 10 meetings with them (W6 D1), across all competitions, are more than he has suffered against any other team while in charge of Barcelona.

And Flick must also deal with the absence of former Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, who will miss Sunday's game with a hamstring issue, having been withdrawn at the interval against Villa.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Atletico Madrid – Alejandro Grimaldo 

Grimaldo has been involved in six goals in LaLiga in the 2026-27 season (four goals, two assists).

That is the joint-most of any defender in the top five European leagues this term, alongside Mainz's Antony Caci (also six – three goals, three assists in the Bundesliga).

Barcelona – Fermin Lopez

Fermin, who registered an assist against Villa in midweek, has six goals and seven assists in all competitions this season. He also scored one goal and teed up two last time out in LaLiga, against Alaves. 

He is one of two LaLiga players to register 5+ goals and 5+ assists in 2026-27, alongside his team-mate Yamal (12 goals, 11 assists). 

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