Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis over the latest Premier League fixtures where goals look to be on the menu when Burnley host Luton on Friday.
Burnley vs Luton, Friday 8pm
Since Christmas Day, 16 of the last 20 Premier League games have seen over 2.5 goals scored. The total per-game average for the season now stands at a simply monstrous 3.13 over a healthy 198 game sample size. If this ratio remains consistent for the remainder of the campaign, it's going to soar past the previous Premier League record of goals-per-game average, which was recorded last season at 2.85. There are no signs of that rate slowing either so goals have to be the play here when assessing the prices. It's 5/6 with Sky Bet for over 2.5 goals - it's a great starting point.
There are only a handful of games a season both these teams will put into the winnable category and this one fits the bill. Three points will be the aim. Of the 22 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 2.9 per game - above what has been expected by the market. And 36 per cent of those 22 games have seen four or more goals scored. That is priced up here at 9/4 with Sky Bet. It's tempting.
There is a clear trend developing that these types of games are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are spitting out for the bookmaker lines. I'm expecting excitement and goals.